Premium Biofortified Snacks And MENA Markets Will Expand Reach

Key Takeaways

• Health-focused product innovation, premiumization, and expanded distribution help Ülker capture evolving consumer tastes and strengthen its position in emerging markets.
  
• Efficiency programs, automation, and strong sustainability efforts drive cost control, margin resilience, and long-term competitive strength.
  
• Heavy exposure to Turkish market risks, rising costs, shifting consumer trends, regulatory pressures, and intense competition threaten long-term margins and growth prospects.

Catalysts

Manufactures, markets, and sells biscuits, chocolates, chocolate coated biscuits, wafers, and cakes in Turkey and internationally.

• Ongoing innovation and the successful launch of new products, including health-oriented and biofortified snacks, position Ülker to capitalize on shifting consumer preferences toward healthier, value-added and premium products, supporting revenue growth and premiumization potential.
  
• Continued expansion in emerging markets such as North Africa and Central Asia, combined with enhanced omni-channel and global distribution strategies, broadens Ülker's addressable market and offers upside for volume and revenue growth as middle-class consumption rises in these regions.
  
• Significant investment in supply chain automation, technology, and AI-powered procurement, as well as operational efficiency programs like the source-to-shelf savings initiative, are expected to mitigate cost pressures, enhance productivity, and improve net margins over the long term.
  
• The company's strong market leadership in Turkey and solid market share across the MENA and Central Asia regions-bolstered by effective marketing campaigns and brand equity initiatives-positions Ülker to maintain pricing power and defend/gain share, supporting consistent revenue and EBITDA performance.
  
• Intensifying focus on sustainability (CDP A rating, 100% recycling/upcycling, partnership with top universities) aligns with growing consumer and regulatory demand for ethical, transparently produced food products, reducing compliance risks and enabling entry into premium segments-potentially supporting both revenue and long-term net margin resilience.

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi's revenue will grow by 25.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.7% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach TRY 18.9 billion (and earnings per share of TRY 39.35) by about August 2028, up from TRY 5.8 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the TR Food industry at 20.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 30.05%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy reliance on the Turkish domestic market (72% of total revenue) exposes Ülker to persistent risks from high inflation, lira devaluation, and macroeconomic instability, which can erode real earnings and compress net margins even if headline revenue grows.
  
• Continued volatility in raw material costs, particularly in cocoa and packaging, alongside energy price increases, has led to declining gross and EBITDA margins across regions, and may further pressure profitability and net income in a global environment of commodity price uncertainty.
  
• Sustained market contraction and structural weakness in key international regions such as the Middle East and partially North Africa have triggered aggressive promotional activity, pricing pressures, and higher marketing expenses-threatening long-term revenue growth and profitability outside Turkey.
  
• Increasing consumer health consciousness and regulatory scrutiny over sugar and processed foods may shift demand away from traditional product categories (biscuits, chocolate, cakes), risking revenue declines or requiring higher R&D and compliance spend to reformulate products and maintain category relevance.
  
• Industry-wide competitive pressures from private label and discount brands, combined with market share defense through promotions, could further erode pricing power and margins over the long-term, especially as demographic trends such as an aging population start to limit the underlying growth of the snacking category.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of TRY183.85 for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of TRY265.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just TRY142.9.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be TRY169.7 billion, earnings will come to TRY18.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 30.1%.
  
• Given the current share price of TRY117.0, the analyst price target of TRY183.85 is 36.4% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.