Modern Retail Channels And Emerging Markets Will Fuel Future Expansion

Key Takeaways

• Strategic market expansion, product premiumization, and retail modernization are driving volume growth, higher margins, and greater earnings potential.
  
• Product innovation and disciplined revenue management are positioning the company to benefit from evolving consumer trends and stabilize earnings amid macro volatility.
  
• Exposure to economic volatility, rising competition, regulatory risks, and margin pressures in key emerging markets threatens the company's long-term growth, profitability, and financial stability.

Catalysts

Engages in the production, sales, and distribution of sparkling and still beverages in Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

• Expansion in high-growth, underpenetrated markets (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Central Asia) is driving robust volume growth, supported by new production capacity and favorable demographic trends; this is likely to accelerate future revenue growth and enhance long-term earnings potential.
  
• The ongoing modernization of retail infrastructure and increased penetration of on-premise and immediate consumption channels are boosting product reach and consumption frequency, which is expected to drive sustained volume and NSR (Net Sales Revenue) per unit case growth over the coming years.
  
• Rising disposable incomes in key emerging markets, coupled with CCI's strategic focus on premiumization (small packs, on-premise, and higher-margin no/low sugar products), is expected to shift the sales mix toward higher ASP (Average Selling Price) and margin accretive products, supporting margin expansion and revenue uplift.
  
• Continued investment in revenue growth management (pricing discipline, promotional optimization, and channel mix) and hedging strategies to manage input cost inflation are expected to deliver gradual improvement in net margins and protect earnings stability, particularly as macro volatility normalizes.
  
• Product innovation-in areas such as stills, no/low sugar beverages, and targeted new flavors-addresses evolving consumer health preferences and positions CCI to capture growth from the global shift toward non-alcoholic, ready-to-drink, and healthier beverage alternatives, providing upside to both medium-term revenue and margin profiles.

Coca-Cola Içecek Anonim Sirketi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Coca-Cola Içecek Anonim Sirketi's revenue will grow by 31.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.4% today to 10.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach TRY 31.6 billion (and earnings per share of TRY 11.35) by about August 2028, up from TRY 9.9 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 14.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Beverage industry at 11.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 28.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Coca-Cola Içecek Anonim Sirketi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions in key markets such as Turkiye and Pakistan-including sticky inflation, declining consumer purchasing power, and political/economic volatility-are pressuring volume growth and limiting the ability to pass on price increases, which could suppress both revenue and net margins over the long term.
  
• Intensifying competition from local beverage brands, especially in Pakistan, is forcing Coca-Cola İçecek to limit price increases and compete more aggressively in rural areas, which may erode market share, compress margins, and increase operating costs, thereby impacting profitability and future earnings.
  
• The declining gross profit and EBITDA margins reported in 2025, combined with management's acknowledgment of ongoing margin pressures and limited visibility on net sales revenue (NSR) per unit case recovery, raise concerns over the company's ability to sustainably grow earnings and protect margins if demand weakens further.
  
• Heavy exposure to emerging markets with volatile currencies and high inflation, coupled with the complexities of inflation-adjusted accounting (TAS 29), creates significant FX and reporting risks-potentially distorting reported growth, reducing international contributions when converted to Turkish lira, and impacting consolidated revenues and net income.
  
• Increasing regulatory pressure-such as excise taxes (as witnessed in Uzbekistan), tax hikes, stricter marketing controls, and growing focus on health and sugar consumption-may intensify in company markets, raising compliance costs, constraining category growth (especially for core carbonated products), and pressuring overall topline growth and margins over time.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of TRY77.886 for Coca-Cola Içecek Anonim Sirketi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of TRY87.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just TRY70.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be TRY304.4 billion, earnings will come to TRY31.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 28.7%.
  
• Given the current share price of TRY50.15, the analyst price target of TRY77.89 is 35.6% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.