High-Performance Radar Sales Will Rise With Global ADAS Adoption

Key Takeaways

• Increasing adoption of automotive radar and high-frequency communications is expanding Gapwaves' market opportunities, supporting revenue growth and geographic diversification.
  
• Strategic partnerships and a scalable, capital-light production model strengthen cost control, margins, and long-term earnings potential as the company shifts to higher-margin revenue streams.
  
• Heavy reliance on a few key customers, challenging market expansion, manufacturing risks, competitive threats, and potential cash flow shortfalls may undermine long-term stability and profitability.

Catalysts

Designs, develops, manufactures, and delivers waveguide products in Sweden, rest of European Union, and internationally.

• Accelerating global adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and upcoming legal requirements for automotive safety are driving sustained demand for high-performance radar antennas, positioning Gapwaves to benefit from a rapidly expanding end market and unlock substantial revenue growth as automotive OEMs' production ramps up over the next several years.
  
• The ongoing expansion of high-frequency communications infrastructure-evidenced by growing demand for automotive radar, as well as emerging backhaul and satellite communications applications-is broadening Gapwaves' total addressable market, supporting new revenue streams and long-term topline growth.
  
• Deepening customer relationships with a majority of leading automotive Tier-1 suppliers, combined with recent production launches (e.g., Valeo) and new strategic partnerships in key growth regions like China, are set to deliver multi-year high-volume product sales and enhanced geographic diversification, likely supporting higher and more stable long-term revenue.
  
• The company's capital-light manufacturing model, with scalable production through qualified local partners and an in-house pilot line, allows Gapwaves to quickly adapt to regional demand while maintaining strict cost control-improving operational leverage and supporting expansion in gross and net margins.
  
• As development projects transition to serial production and product sales become the primary income driver (expected by 2027), higher-margin royalties and licensing revenues are likely to increase, strengthening Gapwaves' overall earnings power and providing a clear path to improved profitability.

Gapwaves Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Gapwaves's revenue will grow by 38.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Gapwaves will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Gapwaves's profit margin will increase from -47.9% to the average SE Communications industry of 7.8% in 3 years.
• If Gapwaves's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach SEK 17.7 million (and earnings per share of SEK 0.57) by about August 2028, up from SEK -40.9 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 56.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -13.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the SE Communications industry at 48.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.87%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gapwaves Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy ongoing reliance on a concentrated customer base-particularly a few key automotive Tier 1s (e.g., Valeo, Desay)-means the loss or reduction in orders from any one of them could result in significant revenue volatility and earnings risk over the long-term.
  
• Gapwaves' anticipated shift from project-based revenues to high-volume product sales by 2027 entails execution risk in scaling manufacturing from pilot lines and external partners to sustained large-scale production, which may result in higher-than-expected costs and lower gross margins if efficiencies aren't realized as projected.
  
• The company's strategy involves expanding into China and Asia, but this market carries elevated risks around IP theft, competitive copying, and shifting regulatory environments, any of which could erode Gapwaves' technological advantage and long-term earnings.
  
• Despite claims of a robust competitive position, rapid commoditization, increasing capabilities from low-cost manufacturers, and larger integrated players could create margin pressure and limit Gapwaves' pricing power, negatively impacting long-term profitability.
  
• Rapid growth and ambitious market expansion plans require significant ongoing investment and working capital; cash flow concerns (with ongoing external financial support needed for Sensrad) and the potential requirement for future capital raises may dilute shareholders and constrain net margins if internal cash generation lags revenue growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK27.0 for Gapwaves based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK225.6 million, earnings will come to SEK17.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 56.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
• Given the current share price of SEK18.26, the analyst price target of SEK27.0 is 32.4% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.