Blood Cancer Screening Adoption Will Drive Long-Term Upside Potential

Catalysts

About Immunovia

Immunovia develops and commercializes blood based diagnostic tests for the early detection of pancreatic cancer.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Commercial transition of PancreaSure from development to a staged national launch, with advocacy already established at leading high risk surveillance centers, positions the company for a multi year ramp in test volumes and top line revenue growth.
• Growing clinical acceptance of blood based cancer screening as a complement to imaging, supported by strong sensitivity and specificity data from CLARITI, VERIFI and AFFIRM, should widen physician adoption over time and support both higher revenue and improved gross margins as lab throughput scales.
• Favorable reimbursement dynamics, including an established billing code and an $897 Medicare rate ahead of broad coverage decisions, create clear pricing visibility and a path to mix shift from self pay to third party payers that can enhance net revenue per test and earnings power.
• Ongoing and planned clinical utility studies, many funded by the National Institutes of Health at minimal cost to Immunovia, are expected to strengthen the medical necessity evidence base, which can accelerate payer coverage decisions and support sustained margin expansion.
• Disciplined cost control, lean headcount and phased investment in a small strategic account team, combined with a recent capital raise that funds operations into late 2026, create operating leverage as volumes build, supporting potential improvement in operating margins and cash flow.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Immunovia's revenue will grow by 295.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Immunovia will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Immunovia's profit margin will increase from -15969.0% to the average SE Medical Equipment industry of 8.1% in 3 years.
• If Immunovia's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach SEK 3.9 million (and earnings per share of SEK 0.01) by about December 2028, up from SEK -125.5 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 83.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the SE Medical Equipment industry at 42.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.95%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The commercial ramp is intentionally slow, with advocacy rather than test volume or revenue as the primary metric until at least late 2026. If adoption at high risk centers plateaus or expands more slowly than planned, revenue growth could remain minimal and delay operating leverage, which would pressure earnings and cash flow over the long term.
• Reimbursement timing is uncertain, as Medicare coverage depends on clinical utility evidence that will not be submitted until 2026 and payer decisions have no fixed timeline. Prolonged self pay dynamics or only partial insurer uptake could cap average selling prices and constrain net margins and earnings power for years.
• The business model requires batching tests to control cost per test and a complex order to cash cycle that can stretch to several months. If test volumes remain modest or logistical frictions persist, unit economics may fail to improve as expected and gross margins and operating margins could stay structurally weak.
• Although PancreaSure shows strong sensitivity and specificity in studies, long term competition from multi cancer early detection tests and alternative imaging or biomarker approaches could erode pricing power and limit volume expansion. This would weigh on revenue growth and reduce the likelihood of scaling to sustainable profitability.
• The company is still loss making, with a guided cash burn of SEK 8 million to SEK 10 million per month and current funding only into the third quarter of 2026. Any delay in reimbursement, partner signing, or volume inflection could force dilutive capital raises or cost cuts that negatively impact earnings and shareholder value.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK0.73 for Immunovia based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK48.5 million, earnings will come to SEK3.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 83.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.0%.
  
• Given the current share price of SEK0.26, the analyst price target of SEK0.73 is 64.0% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.