Merger Synergies And Capital Efficiency To Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Strategic mergers and restructuring efforts are expected to enhance profitability, improve EBITA margins, and optimize operational efficiency.
  
• Strong cash flow and efficient capital management support potential growth and profitability improvements through reinvestment opportunities.
  
• Ratos faces challenges with negative growth in the Consumer segment, cash flow sustainability, and uncertain synergies from recent mergers affecting future profitability.

Catalysts

A private equity firm specializing in buyouts, turnarounds, add on acquisitions, and middle market transactions.

• The recent merger of Knightec and Semcon into the Knightec Group is anticipated to realize significant synergies, impacting both sales and cost efficiency, which could lead to improved earnings and EBITA margins.
  
• The reconstruction and restructuring initiatives at Plantasjen are expected to stabilize operations and potentially improve profitability once legally binding, enhancing net margins.
  
• The Construction and Services segment, particularly the partnership model and public customer base, has shown resilient EBITA growth, with a strong order backlog that might positively influence future revenues and EBITA margins.
  
• Cash flow from operating activities has remained robust, with a high cash conversion rate, supporting potential reinvestment or expansion opportunities, ultimately improving earnings.
  
• The continued emphasis on reducing net working capital and operating with a negative balance indicates efficient capital management, which is likely to enhance net margins and overall profitability going forward.

Ratos Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ratos's revenue will grow by 3.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 0.8% today to 4.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 1.5 billion (and earnings per share of SEK 4.56) by about March 2028, up from SEK 249.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting SEK1.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting SEK1.3 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 47.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Capital Markets industry at 17.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.37%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ratos Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The financial performance of the Consumer segment, particularly with Plantasjen, continues to be a concern with negative sales growth and significant negative one-offs totaling over SEK 200 million. This has adversely impacted EBITA and net margins.
  
• Ratos has experienced a net sales decline of 3% in the quarter with organic growth decreasing by 5%. This is a broad issue affecting all business areas, impacting overall revenue growth.
  
• While there has been strong growth in EBITA in the Construction & Services and Industry sectors, other segments are struggling with low demand, which affects overall earnings and net margins.
  
• The company's cash flow, while currently strong, includes seasonal and one-off elements that may not be sustainable, particularly with reported negative net working capital that the CFO suggests won't continue in 2025. This could affect future cash flow stability and leverage ratios.
  
• There is a noted risk related to the execution of restructurings and synergies from mergers (e.g., Knightec and Semcon, HENT and SSEA), as these synergies have yet to be fully realized and quantified. These uncertainties could impact the profitability and future earnings forecasts.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK46.5 for Ratos based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK55.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK38.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK35.3 billion, earnings will come to SEK1.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
• Given the current share price of SEK35.96, the analyst price target of SEK46.5 is 22.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.