Bonava will at least triple its market value when the housing market recovers

• If earnings hit half of what they were when the company founded in 2016, which was a reasonable housing market period, the company will profit around half a billion SEK. With a P/E multiple of 14, that is around 7 billion sek, which is 3 times the current market value. Regarding the fair share price this is around 20-22 SEK with the multiple method.
• When somebody applies a discounted cash flow calculation with 12% discount rate and 2% revenue growth rate and a profit margin of 8%, which are all quite conservative assuming that we are getting back to an era of lower interest rates, in a ten years analysis we get a fair pice of 49 SEK.
• CEO Peter Wallin has increased his stake in the company by 33% when the price was 7.92 SEK.
• Net debt reduced to 4.2 billion sek from 7.3 billion sek a year ago. Net debt to inventory ratio 4.2/16.7=25%.

• Number of employess has decreased from 1600 in 2023 to 985 in 2024 as part of the cost reductions plan.
• Stock of inventory is decreasing which will help the company financally (by decreasing the maintance costs)

Updated 31/12/2024