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Investment Case Magnora ASA

BO
BonywallInvested
Community Contributor

Published

April 09 2024

Updated

June 30 2024

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Key Takeaways

  • Magnora ASA, a company listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, has been actively transitioning its legacy royalty business towards renewable energy development projects and companies. Their diverse portfolio includes investments in entities such as Helios Nordic Energy AB, Kustvind AB, and Magnora Offshore Wind AS, reflecting a strategic pivot to sustainable energy solutions.
  • The company's recent decision to demerge its legacy business, allowing shareholders to own a significant portion of Hermana Holding ASA, indicates a clear direction towards streamlining operations and focusing on growth areas within the renewable sector. With a history of strong project management and financial expertise, Magnora ASA presents an interesting case for investors considering the renewable energy market, which is poised for growth amid global shifts towards cleaner energy sources.

Catalysts

  • Are there any products or services that could move sales or earnings meaningfully?
  • Are there any industry tailwinds this stock is benefitting or hindered from?

Assumptions

  • Where do you think revenue will be in 5 years time? and why?
  • Where do you think earnings will be in 5 years time? and why?

Risks

Investing in Magnora ASA, like any company, involves various risks. Here are some potential risks based on the company's recent reports:

  • Market Risk: The renewable energy market is highly competitive and subject to rapid technological changes, which could impact Magnora's operations.
  • Electricity Price Risk: Fluctuations in electricity prices can affect the profitability of Magnora's projects.
  • Equipment Price Risk: Changes in the prices of solar PV modules and batteries could influence project costs and margins.
  • Customer Risk: Dependency on a limited number of customers for project sales can pose a risk if these customers fail to fulfill their obligations.
  • Project and Contractual Risk: Delays or failures in project development and execution can lead to increased costs and reduced revenues.
  • Land Lease Risk: Issues with land leases for solar projects could lead to project delays or increased costs.
  • Reservoir Risk: For projects involving reservoirs, there is a risk of capacity being lower than expected, affecting energy production.
  • Credit Risk: There's a possibility of financial losses if counterparties fail to meet their financial obligations to Magnora.
  • Currency Risk: As Magnora operates internationally, it is exposed to currency exchange fluctuations that can affect financial results.
  • Renewable License and Concession Risk: The process of obtaining and maintaining necessary licenses and concessions for operations is complex and can be a risk factor.
  • Interest Rate Risk: Changes in interest rates can affect the cost of financing for Magnora's projects and operations.

Valuation

  • Where do you think the business will be in 3, 5 or 10 years time?
  • What do you think revenue and profit margins will be?
  • What do you think the valuation multiple will be in the future?

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Disclaimer

The user Bonywall has a position in OB:MGN. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
NOK 57.6
54.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Bonywall's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture-545m751m20132017202120242025202920332034Revenue NOK 711.1mEarnings NOK 554.7m
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
31.48%
Renewable Energy revenue growth rate
0.25%