Normalized Supply And Efficiency Will Unlock Salmon Value

Key Takeaways

• Expected return to normal industry supply growth and strong global salmon demand support price increases and sustained revenue growth.
  
• Operational efficiencies, downstream expansion, and stable pricing enhance margin stability and position Mowi ahead of peers.
  
• Exposure to price volatility, operational risks, cost pressures, and rising debt may challenge Mowi's ability to sustain margins, invest for growth, and return value to shareholders.

Catalysts

A seafood company, produces and sells Atlantic salmon products worldwide.

• The current stock price may not fully reflect Mowi's expected normalization of industry supply growth: Following an anomalously high 18% global supply increase in 2025 that pressured prices, the market is set to return to low (1%) growth from 2026 onward, likely resulting in stronger pricing and higher revenues in the medium term.
  
• Mowi's expansion in harvest volumes, both organically and through the Nova Sea acquisition (guiding 545,000 tonnes in 2025 and at least 600,000 tonnes in 2026), positions the company for outpaced volume-driven revenue and EBITDA growth relative to peers.
  
• Persistent cost improvements, including an 8% reduction in feed costs year-over-year, productivity enhancements through automation, and further expected annual cost savings (€300–400 million over the next five years), are set to structurally improve operating margins and net earnings.
  
• Continued robust demand for salmon due to rising global protein consumption and consumer health/sustainability trends-especially strong retail growth in Europe, the US, and explosive demand in Asia (notably China)-provides a durable tailwind for future revenue and margin expansion.
  
• Downstream integration, record Consumer Products division performance, and stable contract pricing provide Mowi with margin insulation from raw material volatility and support higher, more stable EBITDA and net margins going forward.

Mowi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Mowi's revenue will grow by 8.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.8% today to 14.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €1.0 billion (and earnings per share of €1.56) by about August 2028, up from €325.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 27.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Food industry at 22.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Mowi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The recent industry-wide record supply growth of 18% year-over-year-driven by strong biological yields and favorable conditions-has caused significant price pressure on salmon, resulting in lower operational EBIT despite Mowi's cost reductions and higher volumes, suggesting that future revenue and net margins remain vulnerable to further supply surges or cyclical oversupply in the sector.
  
• Mowi relies on ongoing cost efficiencies and declining feed costs to maintain profitability; however, this trend may not be sustainable if raw material prices rise again due to commodity supply shocks or inflation, putting pressure on operating margins and earnings over the long term.
  
• Regional biological or environmental incidents, such as algae blooms and low dissolved oxygen events encountered in Canada, continue to pose operational risks that could lead to unexpected costs, lower harvests, or increased mortality, negatively impacting future net margins and earnings stability.
  
• Market prices have proven highly sensitive to temporary oversupply and high sea temperatures, while consumer demand growth, though currently strong, relies heavily on stable pricing and ongoing retail promotions; any consumer fatigue, price inelasticity, or commodity shocks could reduce volume growth and compress revenues.
  
• Mowi's increasing debt following the Nova Sea acquisition, paired with the need for large-scale capital expenditure for automation, productivity gains, and regional expansion, may constrain free cash flow and limit flexibility in dividend growth or organic investment, potentially impacting long-term earnings and shareholder returns.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of NOK223.744 for Mowi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NOK244.49, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NOK197.11.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €7.2 billion, earnings will come to €1.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of NOK204.6, the analyst price target of NOK223.74 is 8.6% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.