European Expansion Will Create A Sustainable Logistics Future

Key Takeaways

• Expansion through acquisitions and advanced locker technology strengthens out-of-home delivery leadership, enabling faster growth and increasing cost efficiency versus traditional delivery methods.
  
• Diversified customer base and proprietary technology enhance revenue stability, boost operational margins, and reduce reliance on single partners or markets.
  
• Rising competition, heavy investment outflows, and regulatory headwinds threaten InPost's profitability, with integration and cost challenges complicating its expansion and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

Operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Poland and other European countries.

• Ongoing expansion and network densification across key European markets-especially via M&A (Yodel, Sending) and rapid APM (locker) deployment including battery-powered units from Bloq.it-are allowing InPost to capture outsized parcel volume growth and extend its out-of-home leadership, supporting sustained double-digit revenue growth and operating leverage.
  
• Growing shift of consumers and retailers toward locker-based, out-of-home delivery for greater flexibility, urban convenience, and sustainability-accelerated by urban densification and regulatory/environmental pressures-enables InPost to leverage its network and achieve structurally lower unit costs versus traditional to-door delivery, which should enhance net margins over time.
  
• Increasing share of revenues from high-engagement, multi-platform end users and non-marketplace merchants (SMEs), coupled with strong customer loyalty (industry-leading NPS, mobile app adoption), reduces over-reliance on any single e-commerce partner (like Allegro) and underpins more stable, diversified revenue streams.
  
• Strategic deployment of proprietary technology and data analytics to optimize route planning, dynamic pricing, and locker locations-along with new AI-led APMs-are improving per-parcel economics and utilization rates, creating a path to ongoing margin expansion and higher earnings.
  
• Successful integration and transformation of recent acquisitions (notably Yodel in the UK) are expected to deliver material cost synergies, unlock cross-selling opportunities, and accelerate migration from costly to-door to more profitable locker-based deliveries, driving improvement in group EBITDA and long-term earnings power.

InPost Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming InPost's revenue will grow by 21.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.9% today to 13.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach PLN 2.9 billion (and earnings per share of PLN 6.97) by about September 2028, up from PLN 971.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting PLN3.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting PLN1.9 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 23.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the NL Logistics industry at 18.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.49% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.15%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

InPost Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• InPost faces increased competitive pressure from major e-commerce platforms (e.g., Allegro in Poland), which are expanding their logistics offerings and actively attempting to redirect parcels away from InPost; if large partners successfully internalize delivery or shift volumes elsewhere, it could materially reduce InPost's revenue and limit earnings growth.
  
• Heavy capital investment in new APM rollouts, acquisition integration (Yodel, Sending), and continued expansion into international markets is driving higher debt levels and negative free cash flow quarter-to-quarter; if revenue and margin uplift do not offset these outlays, net margins and long-term profitability could be pressured.
  
• The margin benefit of InPost's APM-led model may erode if labor and operational costs rise faster in key international markets (such as the U.K.), or if densification/optimization targets are not met, leading to higher cost per parcel and potential margin compression.
  
• Ongoing regulatory and consumer pressures for sustainability, data privacy, and fair competition (e.g., legal disputes with Allegro) may increase compliance costs, impose operational constraints, or provoke legal risks that negatively affect profitability and cash flows.
  
• Integration risks and ongoing losses in acquired businesses (specifically Yodel, with significant front-loaded integration/restructuring costs and currently loss-making operations) create uncertainty around the timeline to profitability in the U.K., raising the risk of slower-than-expected profit contribution and diluting group-level earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of PLN18.944 for InPost based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of PLN22.02, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just PLN16.04.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be PLN21.9 billion, earnings will come to PLN2.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of PLN10.66, the analyst price target of PLN18.94 is 43.7% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.