Lifecentral Acceleration And Ancillary Income Will Drive A Powerful Long Term Revaluation

Catalysts

About Wereldhave

Wereldhave owns and operates convenience focused Full Service Centers and shopping centers in the Benelux and France.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Acceleration of the LifeCentral strategy, with transformations at Kronenburg and Nivelles reaching completion and driving higher leasing spreads, revaluations, and sustained growth in direct result per share.
• Growing demand from leading fashion and discretionary retailers to expand physical store networks in the Netherlands, supporting rising occupancy, like-for-like net rent growth, and improving net margins.
• Expansion of ancillary income streams such as other rental income from solar panels, EV charging, and parking, turning previously loss-making activities into profit contributors and structurally lifting earnings quality.
• Disciplined portfolio rotation into higher-yielding Belgian and Luxembourg assets at attractive initial yields and IRRs above 8 percent, which enhances long-term revenue growth and supports further multiple re-rating.
• Strengthened balance sheet and diversified funding base, including long-dated European private placements and a reaffirmed BBB rating, which lowers financing risk and interest expense and supports future earnings growth.
• Deep pipeline of investable Benelux service centers and a scalable joint venture model with Sofidy, enabling accretive external growth while keeping loan-to-value trending lower and supporting higher future dividends.

Assumptions

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Wereldhave compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts. How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• The bullish analysts are assuming Wereldhave's revenue will remain fairly flat over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 43.6% today to 72.9% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach €144.4 million (and earnings per share of €3.02) by about December 2028, up from €88.7 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €105.2 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 9.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Retail REITs industry at 9.3x.
• The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.72% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.26%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The long term shift in retail towards e commerce and a structurally challenging occupier market in France could cap rental growth, pressure leasing spreads and force disposals at book losses, which would weigh on revenue and direct result per share over time.
• Reliance on high initial yields and IRRs from acquisitions in Belgium and Luxembourg, in markets where investment volumes and buyer appetite can change quickly, creates the risk that future deals underperform underwriting or cannot be recycled at comparable valuations, negatively impacting revaluation gains and earnings growth.
• Wereldhave is still above its targeted loan to value and plans to use disposals and equity backed acquisitions to deleverage, so a weaker transaction market, delayed French exits or lower than expected sales prices could keep leverage elevated and increase financing costs, which would reduce net margins and direct result per share.
• The strategy depends on sustained like for like rental growth of around 6 percent and rising other rental income from solar panels, EV charging and parking, yet slowing inflation, softer consumer spending or lower utilization of these ancillary services could reduce rent indexation and side income, dampening revenue growth and limiting margin expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The assumed bullish price target for Wereldhave is €24.0, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of €18.67. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Wereldhave's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €24.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €15.5.
  
• In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €198.1 million, earnings will come to €144.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of €18.74, the analyst price target of €24.0 is 21.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.