Heavy Decarbonization Costs And Protectionism Will Pressure Steel Margins For Years

AnalystLowTarget

Analyst Low Target compiles bearish analysts opinions to create narratives which represent one standard deviation below the consensus price target, using forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls.

Published

27 Dec 25

Updated

09 Jul 26

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Not Invested

Shared on 09 Jul 26

Fair value Increased 65%

MT: Share Buybacks And AWS Deal Will Likely Leave Shares Overextended

ArcelorMittal ramps up share buybacks and teams up with Amazon Web Services to bring more automation and data tools into its steel plants, while also lining up a long-term customer for its lower-carbon steel. At the same time, some signals suggest the stock may already be running hot, raising the question of how much good news is left to be priced in.

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Fair Value vs Share Price

€45.18

vs €58.1628.7% overvalued

3.6%

Revenue growth

6.5%

Profit margin

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Company analysis

Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.

Market cap€44.3b

PB0.9x

Estimated Growth5.3%

Dividend Yield0.9%

Full analysis

CEO & management

Aditya Mittal

CEO

5.4yrs

CEO Tenure

Operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.