Maintaining CET1 Ratio Above 135% Will Strengthen Capital Management And Shareholder Returns

Key Takeaways

• Linking shareholder returns to CET1 ratios aims to boost returns through buybacks and dividends, enhancing EPS and profitability.
  
• Conservative asset management supports possible provision reversals, positively influencing net margins and bottom-line growth.
  
• Dependency on capital adequacy and economic conditions could challenge profitability, hinder revenue growth, and impact investor satisfaction and market valuation.

Catalysts

Provides a range of banking and related financial services to consumers and corporations in South Korea, the United States, New Zealand, China, Cambodia, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, and internationally.

• KB Financial Group plans to link shareholder returns to their CET1 ratio, proposing that excess capital will be used for share buybacks and dividends, aiming to enhance shareholder return and potentially increase future earnings per share (EPS).
  
• The CEO highlighted efforts to improve capital efficiency and maintain a CET1 ratio above 13.5%, which positions the company for robust capital management and enhances shareholder returns, impacting overall profitability and asset quality positively.
  
• The group intends to focus on qualitative growth through RWA-focused management, which should bolster their fundamental earnings capabilities, thus influencing future revenue and net margins.
  
• A strategic initiative involves reducing risk-weighted asset (RWA) growth to about 5%, potentially increasing capital utilization efficiency while still growing net profits, thereby supporting sustained revenue growth.
  
• KB Financial Group's conservative and preemptive provisioning in their asset quality management has enabled the possibility of reversing some provisions, which can positively impact future net margins and bottom-line growth.

KB Financial Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming KB Financial Group's revenue will grow by 9.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 31.6% today to 31.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₩5907.7 billion (and earnings per share of ₩16930.21) by about December 2027, up from ₩4452.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₩4907.3 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.2x on those 2027 earnings, up from 7.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 13.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.33% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.82%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

KB Financial Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The reliance on CET1 ratio for shareholder returns and growth strategies highlights a dependency on maintaining high capital adequacy, which could be challenged by external factors like fluctuations in interest and FX rates, potentially impacting profitability and net margins.
  
• KB Financial Group's capital-light growth strategy targeting RWA (Risk-Weighted Assets) efficiency may limit asset expansion, hindering revenue growth potential while focusing primarily on capital utilization.
  
• Decreased NIM (Net Interest Margin) due to interest rate cuts and loan repricing could pressure interest income, impacting overall earnings and profitability margins.
  
• Potential credit quality risks remain in the real estate trust and project financing sectors, requiring conservative provisioning, which could adversely affect net profits through increased credit costs.
  
• Constraints in expanding shareholder returns due to external economic conditions and growth limitations may lead to investor dissatisfaction, potentially affecting share price and market valuation.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₩111069.57 for KB Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₩125000.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₩85600.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₩18560.3 billion, earnings will come to ₩5907.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.8%.
• Given the current share price of ₩85400.0, the analyst's price target of ₩111069.57 is 23.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.