2025 Plan Will Unlock Capital Capacity And Efficient Asset Management

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 strategy aims to enhance ROE and stable bank earnings, while improving non-bank operations to positively impact future earnings.
  
• Efficient asset management and shareholder-focused strategies, like buybacks, aim to increase capital flexibility and boost earnings per share.
  
• Shinhan Financial Group faces challenges with decreased nonbank affiliate earnings, asset quality concerns, and regulatory changes impacting revenue growth and net margins.

Catalysts

Provides financial products and services in South Korea and internationally.

• The 2025 Value-up plan aims to improve ROE by more than 50 basis points year-over-year through stable bank earnings and structural improvement of non-bank businesses, which could positively impact future earnings.
  
• There is a focus on unlocking additional capital capacity through efficient asset management, maintaining a CET1 ratio of 13.1% or above, providing flexibility for future growth and financial stability. This could influence earnings and revenue.
  
• Share buybacks and cancellations are expected to drive a faster shareholder return program, targeting a shareholder return ratio of 42% or above in 2025, potentially boosting earnings per share (EPS).
  
• The group plans strategic management to maintain stable capital ratios while still supplying necessary funds to the right places, indicating a cautious but growth-oriented approach to asset growth and revenue enhancement.
  
• Recovery in recurring earning power from investment banking fees and marketable securities, despite a challenging environment, highlights a potential boost in non-interest income, supporting future revenue.

Shinhan Financial Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Shinhan Financial Group's revenue will grow by 3.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 30.3% today to 34.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₩5508.8 billion (and earnings per share of ₩11408.95) by about July 2028, up from ₩4433.2 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₩4934.2 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 7.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.62% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Shinhan Financial Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The group's ROE fell year-over-year due to a decrease in nonbank affiliate earnings, which could impact future revenue growth and net margins.
  
• The company's NPL (Non-Performing Loan) coverage ratio has dropped significantly, indicating potential asset quality issues which could affect net earnings.
  
• There is a noted decrease in noninterest income due to a decline in commission and insurance-related income, which could pressure overall revenue growth.
  
• Shinhan Card's profitability is under pressure from regulatory changes and high-interest rate environments, presenting a risk to the group's earnings.
  
• Credit costs have increased due to challenging economic conditions, which may continue to impact net margins if corporate credit risks rise.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₩76909.091 for Shinhan Financial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₩104000.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₩53500.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₩16144.6 billion, earnings will come to ₩5508.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
• Given the current share price of ₩68100.0, the analyst price target of ₩76909.09 is 11.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.