Digital Transformation And Demographic Demand Will Deliver Resilient Future

Key Takeaways

• Rising demand for diversified life and health insurance products, coupled with strong customer retention, is driving growth and boosting profitability.
  
• Digitalization, disciplined asset allocation, and strategic risk reduction are improving efficiency, investment returns, and earnings stability.
  
• Rising interest rates, wage inflation, asset underperformance, and higher mortality are straining profitability, regulatory capital, and long-term earnings resilience amidst equity market and portfolio risks.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services primarily in Japan.

• Growing demand for life insurance and annuity products, fueled by an aging population and rising awareness of the need for retirement planning, is driving increased new policy sales and higher policies in force across all three life insurance companies-directly supporting revenue and earnings growth.
  
• Strategic reduction in surrender and lapse rates, combined with stable or improving customer retention, suggests strengthening premium inflows and greater persistency of business, which contributes to recurring revenue and enhanced profitability.
  
• Ongoing digital transformation (such as hybrid sales models and operational efficiency programs) is expected to further reduce costs and improve customer experience, driving improvements in net margins and expense ratios over the long term.
  
• Product diversification-through launches like advanced cancer coverage and expansion in health-related or corporate insurance-continues to broaden T&D Holdings' addressable market and customer base, supporting topline revenue growth and more resilient, stable earnings.
  
• Reduction of equity risk via sales of strategic shareholdings and disciplined asset allocation into higher-yielding JGBs positions T&D Holdings for improved investment returns and less capital volatility, positively impacting net investment income and total comprehensive earnings over time.

T&D Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming T&D Holdings's revenue will grow by 11.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 5.2% today to 4.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ¥164.1 billion (and earnings per share of ¥358.58) by about September 2028, up from ¥129.6 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ¥142.0 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 14.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the JP Insurance industry at 12.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.47% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 4.72%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

T&D Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Rising domestic interest rates in Japan have led to unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings and increased mass surrender risk, which could negatively pressure the company's balance sheet, regulatory capital (ESR), and future profits.
  
• The company's alternative asset performance (especially private equity within Fortitude and T&D United Capital) has been sluggish due to challenging exit environments and lack of IPOs, creating volatility in returns and potential headwinds for net earnings and return on equity.
  
• Operating expense increases, particularly due to ongoing wage inflation (assumed at 1.2% but with the possibility actual increases outpace this), and rising human resource costs could compress net margins and erode embedded value (EV) if inflation or wage pressures persist long-term.
  
• The elevated and increasing mortality rate and expectations of a gradual deterioration in surrender rates, especially in certain channels like bancassurance, pose long-term risks to actuarial assumptions, potentially leading to higher claims, worse EV assumptions, and pressure on profitability.
  
• Continuous reduction in strategic shareholdings is exposing the company to portfolio rebalancing risk and equity market volatility, while slower progress in consolidating and optimizing equity investments versus peers could impact long-term investment income and comparative earnings resilience.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥3940.0 for T&D Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥4770.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥2100.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ¥3467.1 billion, earnings will come to ¥164.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 4.7%.
• Given the current share price of ¥3843.0, the analyst price target of ¥3940.0 is 2.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.