Global Expansion Into High-Value-Added Segments Will Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Structural reforms and brand focus have strengthened Kao's earning power, boosting net margins and operating income through high-value-added manufacturing.
  
• Expanding into premium segments and geographic markets with strategic partnerships is expected to enhance revenue growth and operating margins.
  
• Economic challenges in China and rising costs are pressuring Kao's operating margins, despite gains from structural reforms and high-value products.

Catalysts

Develops and sells hygiene and living care, health and beauty care, life care, cosmetics, and chemical products.

• The structural reforms have strengthened Kao's earning power, enabling the company to shift to manufacturing that enhances value, which is expected to improve net margins and operating income.
  
• Kao's core brands are improving profit margins and gaining market share, with expansion into high-value-added segments like premium hair care, which is likely to boost revenue growth.
  
• The Chemical Business is expanding its high-value-added product offerings, and with a market recovery, operating margins are improving, potentially increasing future earnings.
  
• Global rollout of Kao's high-value-added products, especially in skin protection and hair care, utilizing DX and enhanced marketing strategies, is expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins.
  
• Increased facility expansion for producing tertiary amines and other chemicals in Europe and the US, along with strategic partnerships in China, are set to contribute to future sales growth and improved operating margins.

Kao Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Kao's revenue will grow by 3.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.2% today to 7.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ¥136.1 billion (and earnings per share of ¥296.43) by about December 2027, up from ¥82.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ¥116.4 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.9x on those 2027 earnings, down from 37.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the JP Personal Products industry at 30.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.38% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.52%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Kao Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The slowdown in China's cosmetics business has led to significant operating losses, impacting Kao's overall operating margin and reducing earnings from that region.
  
• Rising raw material costs, particularly in the fourth quarter, could negatively affect Kao's gross margins and increase cost pressures, thereby impacting net margins.
  
• Declining net sales in Asia, driven by a significant slowdown in China, may affect overall revenue growth despite gains in other regions.
  
• Structural reform expenses in European and American subsidiaries, while aimed at long-term benefits, are currently reducing operating margins and could impact short-term earnings.
  
• In the Health and Beauty Care Business, the incurred structural reform costs could continue to pressure operating margins and earnings unless growth from high-value-added products offset these increases.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥7050.0 for Kao based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥8400.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥6550.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ¥1754.4 billion, earnings will come to ¥136.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.5%.
• Given the current share price of ¥6670.0, the analyst's price target of ¥7050.0 is 5.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.