Expanding Tower Assets Will Meet Italy's Growing Digital Needs

Key Takeaways

• INWIT's growth strategy includes expanding its tower assets and capitalizing on Italy's growing digital infrastructure needs, which could boost revenue.
  
• Strategic financial maneuvers and cost efficiencies aim to improve margins and enhance shareholder returns through potential dividends or share repurchases.
  
• Limited growth in the OLOs market, soft fixed wireless access demand, and anchor tenant challenges threaten revenue projections and long-term growth.

Catalysts

Operates in the electronic communications infrastructure sector in Italy.

• INWIT plans to expand its asset base by adding more than 900 towers in 2024, which should lead to accretive returns and positively impact revenue growth.
  
• There is a growing structural need for digital infrastructure in Italy, with INWIT being well-positioned to benefit from potential increased investments in mobile connectivity, which could enhance revenue.
  
• New service revenue growth, up by over 60% year-on-year, driven by indoor infrastructure and smart grid applications, may continue and contribute to increased margins and earnings.
  
• INWIT's commitment to lease cost efficiencies through land buyouts and renegotiations is a strategic driver for improving EBITDA margins.
  
• Shareholder returns are expected to benefit from INWIT's balance sheet flexibility, supported by reduced leverage and a recent share buyback, potentially leading to increased dividends or share repurchases, thus enhancing earnings per share.

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane's revenue will grow by 6.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 35.0% today to 39.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €480.8 million (and earnings per share of €0.54) by about December 2027, up from €356.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €535.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €424.5 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.6x on those 2027 earnings, up from 25.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Telecom industry at 18.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.7% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The OLOs (Other Licensed Operators) market has shown limited growth due to budget constraints, impacting potential revenue from expansion in this sector.
  
• Inflation rates in 2024 have been lower than expected, resulting in a potential shortfall in expected earnings, challenging the assumptions in revenue growth plans.
  
• Discretionary investments in mobile infrastructure have been minimal, potentially delaying the expected rebound in demand and revenue growth until beyond 2024.
  
• The fixed wireless access market remains soft, and low incremental revenue from this technology could affect overall revenue growth projections.
  
• The performance of anchor tenants like Vodafone and TIM could be impacted by their transitional challenges, affecting long-term committed revenue streams.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €12.34 for Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €13.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €10.5.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be €1.2 billion, earnings will come to €480.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
• Given the current share price of €9.62, the analyst's price target of €12.34 is 22.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.