Key Takeaways
- Expansion of direct-to-consumer channels and global brand elevation efforts are boosting revenue growth, margins, and pricing power, reducing reliance on wholesale.
- Seasonless collections and strong balance sheet enable flexibility, while premium positioning in key markets supports resilient growth and future expansion.
- Weak tourism, declining store sales, margin pressures, limited product diversification, and constrained pricing power pose risks to Moncler's growth and profitability.
Catalysts
About Moncler- Produces and distributes clothing for men, women and children, footwear, glasses, and other accessories under the Moncler and Stone Island brands in Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.
- Ongoing strategic initiatives to expand direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales-especially through digital and flagship store investments in key global cities (U.S., China, Asia-Pacific)-are set to structurally increase both revenue growth and net margins by accessing broader, higher-margin customer segments and by reducing reliance on wholesale.
- Moncler's continued brand elevation efforts (e.g., high-profile collaborations, new category launches such as footwear, increased activity in the U.S. via targeted campaigns and celebrity partnerships) are expected to reinforce brand desirability and pricing power, supporting above-market revenue growth and potential gross margin expansion.
- The Group's shift toward seasonless product assortments (e.g., ramping up summer and transitional wear via Moncler Collection and Grenoble) reduces reliance on winter outerwear and targets growing year-round demand, expanding the addressable market and supporting a more balanced, resilient revenue base.
- The strong net cash position and disciplined capex investment in both distribution and infrastructure (including new headquarters and scalable retail spaces) provides significant flexibility for future expansion, merger synergies (Stone Island integration), and enhancing earning potential through operating leverage.
- Rising demand for high-quality, sustainable, and durable luxury goods-particularly in affluent and fast-growing markets in Asia-Pacific-positions Moncler to capitalize on global wealth creation trends, supporting long-term top-line growth and reinforcing resilient margins.
Moncler Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Moncler's revenue will grow by 6.8% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 19.7% today to 21.5% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach €815.3 million (and earnings per share of €2.83) by about August 2028, up from €612.3 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 20.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Luxury industry at 22.1x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.37% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Moncler Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Prolonged softness in key markets due to weaker tourism flows-especially in Europe and Japan-creates high revenue sensitivity to international travel trends and exposes Moncler to risks if regional tourism demand does not rebound structurally.
- Declining like-for-like (comp) sales in the core D2C channel (−4% in H1) amid "challenging macroeconomic conditions" and decreasing store traffic signal possible waning demand and could pressure both short
- and long-term revenue growth and net margins.
- Operating margin contraction (from 21% to 18.3% YoY) driven by higher marketing expenditure and sluggish revenue momentum suggests limited operational leverage; if negative comps persist, further profit margin erosion is likely.
- Overdependence on outerwear and slow category/diversification progress-despite efforts in footwear, knitwear, and Grenoble-makes Moncler vulnerable to changing fashion cycles and consumer fatigue, risking future revenue stability.
- Increasing price sensitivity, particularly as Moncler has signaled smaller price increases for 2026 amid FX headwinds and tariffs, constrains pricing power; combined with stiff competition and hesitant consumer sentiment, this could negatively impact earnings and margin recovery.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of €57.174 for Moncler based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €70.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €47.5.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €3.8 billion, earnings will come to €815.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.7%.
- Given the current share price of €46.65, the analyst price target of €57.17 is 18.4% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.