Sustainable Infrastructure And Green Hydrogen Will Fuel Future Expansion

Key Takeaways

• Expansion into sustainable technologies and key global regions drives robust revenue visibility, margin improvement, and earnings stability from diversified, higher-value project pipelines.
  
• Increased focus on proprietary solutions and recurring, high-margin technology licensing is reducing project risk and supporting stronger, more predictable earnings performance.
  
• Heavy dependency on traditional EPC projects in volatile regions and fossil sectors, with limited green tech diversification and underinvestment, threatens Maire's long-term stability and growth.

Catalysts

MAIRE S.p.A. develops and implements various solutions to enable the energy transition.

• The rapid acceleration in global decarbonization and increased investment in sustainable infrastructure is driving robust demand for Maire's engineering, technology licensing, and project execution capabilities-evident in a €5.6 billion order intake and a €15.7 billion backlog spanning high-growth regions. This directly supports long-term revenue visibility, order book growth, and top-line expansion.
  
• Maire's NextChem and Sustainable Technology Solutions divisions have gained strong traction in green hydrogen, biofuels, and circular chemistry, with proprietary technologies like AdWinMethanol Zero and NX eBlue positioned at the forefront of global climate initiatives. As these high-value, low-carbon projects move to execution (e.g., the Pacifico Mexinol contract), margins and EBITDA are expected to benefit from the higher profitability of these business lines.
  
• The shift toward recurring, high-margin revenue streams from technology licensing and digital services within NextChem reduces exposure to large EPC project cyclicality and supports structurally higher net margins and earnings quality.
  
• Maire's geographical expansion-particularly strengthened presence in Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa-positions the company to capture a broader share of global decarbonization-driven project pipelines, which is set to drive further revenue growth and earnings stability as order flow becomes both larger and more diversified.
  
• Ongoing and anticipated flagship contracts (including world-leading low-carbon methanol and large-scale green project wins) point to operational leverage, improved project mix, and effective cost management, indicating meaningful upside potential for earnings and EBITDA margin expansion as new, higher-margin projects overtake legacy ones in the revenue mix.

Maire Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Maire's revenue will grow by 6.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.5% today to 4.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €335.8 million (and earnings per share of €1.01) by about August 2028, up from €234.5 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €288.6 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 17.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Construction industry at 15.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.28% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Maire Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy reliance on large EPC project execution-particularly in new geographies like Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Kazakhstan-exposes Maire to increased risks of cost overruns, project delays, and complex local operating environments, which could negatively impact net margins and earnings consistency.
  
• Significant growth in order backlog is driven mainly by traditional energy and petrochemical infrastructure projects; an overdependence on these sectors leaves Maire vulnerable to long-term declines in fossil fuel investment due to accelerating global decarbonization and anti-fossil-fuel policies, potentially dampening future revenue streams.
  
• Maire's relatively limited market penetration in the United States for its core E&C business and concentration of future project pipelines in politically and economically unstable regions (e.g., Central Asia, North Africa) increases exposure to cross-border regulatory, geopolitical, and protectionism risks-potentially impacting order intake, revenue growth, and backlog realization.
  
• The sustainability and technology-focused NextChem business, while growing, remains a small portion of the overall backlog and revenues; inadequate diversification into higher-growth, green tech segments compared to global peers could limit Maire's ability to offset declines in core EPC markets, stagnating long-term revenue and EBITDA expansion.
  
• High dividend payouts and ongoing share buybacks reduce retained cash for necessary investments in R&D, digitalization, and automation; underinvestment in these areas may erode Maire's competitive edge amid industry-wide digital disruption and stringent ESG requirements, potentially dampening profitability and future earnings growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €13.114 for Maire based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €8.1 billion, earnings will come to €335.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.2%.
• Given the current share price of €12.33, the analyst price target of €13.11 is 6.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.