Non-Soap Growth And International Stability Expected To Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Margin recovery through price increases and cost stabilization is expected to enhance net margins in the future.
  
• Non-soap portfolio growth and international market stability are key to potential revenue and earnings growth.
  
• High inflation and import duties are pressuring soap margins and growth, urban and rural market challenges threaten revenue, and acquisitions aren't meeting performance expectations.

Catalysts

A fast-moving consumer goods company, engages in the manufacture and marketing of personal care and home care products in India, Africa, Indonesia, the Middle East, the United States of America, and internationally.

• GCPL anticipates recovery of margins through price increases and cost stabilization, suggesting potential future improvement in net margins.
  
• The company is maintaining and even increasing brand investment, anticipating long-term revenue growth from sustained brand strength and consumer loyalty.
  
• Growth in non-soap portfolio categories like air care, laundry, and sexual wellness is expected to drive overall revenue growth, offsetting challenges in the soap category.
  
• Structural improvements and macroeconomic stability in international markets, particularly in GAUM and LatAm, are expected to drive profitability and earnings growth.
  
• The rollout of new product innovations, such as the RNF molecule in household insecticides, is anticipated to enhance product efficacy and drive future volume growth, potentially boosting revenue.

Godrej Consumer Products Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Godrej Consumer Products's revenue will grow by 10.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.6% today to 24.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹45.2 billion (and earnings per share of ₹30.01) by about December 2027, up from ₹-3.7 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 69.5x on those 2027 earnings, up from -313.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Personal Products industry at 30.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 13.72% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 13.67%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Godrej Consumer Products Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• High inflation in palm oil and the impact of import duties have led to a decrease in margins for the company's soaps segment, which may continue to pressure overall EBITDA margins in the near term. This could potentially impact the net margins if the cost pressure sustains.
  
• The company expects pressure on soaps volume growth due to current price increases and the structure of the industry, which could impact their revenue from this segment in the coming quarters.
  
• A slowdown in urban growth, particularly in the general trade channel, creates challenges for maintaining overall growth rates, potentially impacting revenue streams.
  
• The reliance on expanding the rural market through direct distribution investments could fail to yield expected returns if rural consumption patterns do not hold up, potentially impacting long-term revenue growth.
  
• The potential shortfall in the expected EBITDA improvement from acquired assets like RCCL indicates that the company's acquisitions may not be fully integrated or performing as well as expected, which could impact overall earnings growth projections.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹1421.47 for Godrej Consumer Products based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹1680.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹1000.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₹187.8 billion, earnings will come to ₹45.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 69.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 13.7%.
• Given the current share price of ₹1135.3, the analyst's price target of ₹1421.47 is 20.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.