UK India FTA And Premium Demand Will Spur Market Expansion

Key Takeaways

• Favorable regulatory shifts and capacity expansions are driving improved margins, increased operating leverage, and greater access to key markets.
  
• Strong growth in premium segments and dominant positioning in emerging categories support robust revenue gains and brand-driven profit expansion.
  
• Heavy reliance on the domestic market, volatile input costs, and concentrated brand portfolio expose the company to regulatory, margin, and growth risks.

Catalysts

Engages in the manufacture and trading of Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL) and country liquor in India, the United States, and internationally.

• The reduction in duty on bulk Scotch imports due to the U.K.-India FTA is set to significantly lower input costs over the next several years, leading to meaningful gross margin expansion and improved profitability.
  
• Rapid growth in the premium and luxury spirits segments, supported by new successful launches like Morpheus Super Premium Whisky, Royal Ranthambore, and The Spirit of Kashmyr, positions Radico Khaitan to capitalize on Indian consumers' increasing preference for premium branded beverages-driving higher revenue growth and sustained margin improvement.
  
• Structural modernization of state-level alcohol policies and improvements in distribution (especially in large markets like Andhra Pradesh and prospective openings in Bihar, Delhi, Tamil Nadu) are providing a friendlier regulatory environment and expanded addressable markets, setting the stage for outsized volume and earnings growth.
  
• Completion of major capacity expansions (Sitapur plant, increased single malt capacity) and efficiency initiatives are removing production constraints and increasing operating leverage, supporting both volume growth and net margin improvement as demand accelerates.
  
• The accelerating shift among younger Indian consumers toward aspirational, craft, and vodka categories-where Radico already has dominant market share-presents long-term opportunities for upscale product innovation and brand upgrades, which is likely to result in ongoing revenue and profit growth.

Radico Khaitan Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Radico Khaitan's revenue will grow by 15.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.7% today to 11.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹9.4 billion (and earnings per share of ₹62.32) by about August 2028, up from ₹4.0 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₹7.6 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 62.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 94.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Beverage industry at 36.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.16% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.73%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Radico Khaitan Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's high recent growth rates are partly attributable to base effects and state-specific regulatory changes (such as Andhra Pradesh reopening); once these normalize, organic growth could moderate, impacting future revenue and earnings momentum.
  
• Radico Khaitan's strategy remains highly concentrated in India with limited evidence of meaningful international expansion compared to larger global peers; this leaves earnings and revenue growth vulnerable to domestic regulatory shocks, market saturation, or economic downturns.
  
• Although management cites stable raw materials and input costs, the company remains structurally exposed to commodity volatility (such as grain prices); a reversal in the softening trend would erode gross and EBITDA margins, particularly given their ongoing commitments to marketing spend and premium brand launches.
  
• Reliance on a small handful of rapidly growing premium brands carries portfolio concentration risk; if consumer preferences shift or new entrants disrupt the market, Radico could experience both volume and margin headwinds, which would negatively affect top-line revenue and operating profit.
  
• Persistent regulatory unpredictability at the state level-including taxation changes in Maharashtra, potential future advertising bans, and overdue receivables from states such as Telangana-pose ongoing risks to cash flow, working capital management, and ultimately net margin expansion.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹3066.538 for Radico Khaitan based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹3675.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹2520.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₹80.4 billion, earnings will come to ₹9.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 62.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.7%.
• Given the current share price of ₹2823.9, the analyst price target of ₹3066.54 is 7.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.