Numaligarh Refinery Expansion And Renewables Will Diversify Future Revenue Streams

Key Takeaways

• Expansion of production capacity and refinery projects may drive revenue growth and relieve regional demand constraints.
  
• Strategic investments in renewables, CGD initiatives, and premium gas pricing could diversify revenue and improve margins.
  
• Operational setbacks, declining margins, and price uncertainties pose significant risks to Oil India's revenue and earnings forecasts.

Catalysts

Engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in India.

• Oil India's plans to achieve a long-term vision of increasing production to 4 million tonnes of oil and 5 BCM of gas per year could drive revenue growth as these goals are accomplished over the next few years.
  
• The ramp-up of Numaligarh Refinery's capacity from 3 million tonnes to 9 million tonnes with supported evacuation pipelines could relieve regional demand constraints and contribute to future increases in oil and gas revenues.
  
• The potential premium pricing for gas produced from new wells or through new interventions, allowing for a 20% higher rate than the existing cap, could enhance future net margins as this premium becomes applicable.
  
• The expansion of the Indradhanush Gas Grid and DNPL capacity could facilitate increased gas production and offtake, leading to a gradual but significant contribution to revenue growth once infrastructure projects are completed.
  
• Oil India's investments in renewable energy and city gas distribution (CGD) initiatives, alongside strategic moves like underground gas storage to ensure consistent supply, could diversify revenue streams, improve operating efficiencies, and support earnings stability.

Oil India Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Oil India's revenue will decrease by -13.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 24.6% today to 38.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹86.5 billion (and earnings per share of ₹58.99) by about December 2027, up from ₹83.9 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting ₹102.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting ₹60.7 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.2x on those 2027 earnings, up from 9.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Oil and Gas industry at 11.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.4% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 14.99%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Oil India Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Average crude oil price realization decreased by 8.67% for Q2, which may impact revenue and profit margins if the trend continues.
  
• Gross refining margin at Numaligarh Refinery Limited significantly fell from USD 16.04 per barrel in Q2 FY '23-'24 to USD 2.25 per barrel in Q2 FY '24-'25, affecting net margins and earnings.
  
• There was a sequential decline in natural gas production in Q2 due to shutdowns at major power stations, indicating operational issues that could impact revenue.
  
• The completion of infrastructure projects like the IGGL pipeline, which are necessary to meet future production targets, still remains uncertain and could delay revenue growth.
  
• Dependence on legislative changes for oil and gas pricing, like the $6.5 cap, introduces uncertainty and could affect long-term revenue and earnings forecasts.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹589.02 for Oil India based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹777.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹280.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₹223.7 billion, earnings will come to ₹86.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 15.0%.
• Given the current share price of ₹469.55, the analyst's price target of ₹589.02 is 20.3% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.