Last Update 09 Dec 25

IVA: 2026 Phase 3 Fibrosis Data Will Drive Significant Upside Potential

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Inventiva to $13.00, reflecting increased confidence in lanifibranor's potential for superior fibrosis improvement ahead of the pivotal Phase 3 NATiV3 data, which is expected in the second half of 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research highlights a generally constructive stance on Inventiva, anchored by optimism around lanifibranor's potential differentiation in the emerging MASH treatment landscape and the value inflection expected around the Phase 3 NATiV3 readout in the second half of 2026.

Given the current research, analyst perspectives are largely aligned, with limited explicit downside commentary. The key takeaways for investors can therefore be consolidated as follows:

Key Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the Phase 3 NATiV3 topline data as the single most important catalyst for the equity story. A successful outcome is expected to materially de risk execution and justify upside to the current valuation.
Expectations that lanifibranor could deliver superior fibrosis improvement versus approved MASH therapies underpin the current price target, supporting a premium relative to peers if the efficacy profile is confirmed.
The reiterated 13 dollar price target reflects confidence that the current share price does not fully capture the probability adjusted value of lanifibranor's Phase 3 opportunity or the potential for broader label expansion.
At the same time, analysts acknowledge that the investment case is highly binary around the NATiV3 readout in 2026. This leaves the stock exposed to clinical, regulatory, and timeline execution risks that could drive significant downside if the trial underperforms expectations.

What's in the News

Inventiva completed a follow-on equity offering of approximately 150 million dollars via American Depositary Shares, issuing 38,961,038 securities at 3.85 dollars per ADS, to strengthen its balance sheet ahead of key clinical milestones (Key Developments).
The company filed an additional at-the-market follow-on equity program of up to 100 million dollars in ordinary shares, providing incremental financing flexibility to support ongoing operations and the lanifibranor program (Key Developments).
Inventiva appointed Andrew Obenshain, former CEO of bluebird bio, as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding co-founder Frédéric Cren and signaling a shift toward late-stage development and potential commercialization capabilities (Key Developments).
A Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting is scheduled for November 27, 2025 in Paris to vote on CEO compensation, a settlement agreement with Frédéric Cren, equity awards, and new stock option authorizations for executives and employees (Key Developments).
Multiple lock-up agreements on ordinary shares, pre-funded warrants, certain warrants, and stock options will remain in place until February 11, 2026, helping to limit near-term share overhang following the recent capital raises (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at 8.2 times projected earnings, indicating no revision to the core valuation anchor.
The discount rate fell slightly from 6.72 percent to approximately 6.61 percent, modestly lowering the implied cost of capital.
Revenue growth rose fractionally from about 118.21 percent to 118.22 percent, leaving the long term growth outlook effectively stable.
Net profit margin was essentially unchanged at approximately 41.15 percent, reflecting a steady long term profitability assumption.
Future P/E edged down slightly from 23.35 times to roughly 23.28 times, implying a marginally lower forward multiple applied to earnings.

Strategic focus on lanifibranor development, cutting other activities, and reducing workforce may improve net margins through operational efficiency.
Key partnerships in Asia and financial strength ensure market penetration and support sustained investment, boosting future earnings potential.
Heavy reliance on lanifibranor and halting other projects may hinder innovation and diversification, posing risks to revenue and future earnings.

Catalysts

About Inventiva

A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of oral small molecule therapies for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other diseases.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing Phase III clinical trial for lanifibranor in MASH is anticipated to complete patient recruitment in the first half of 2025, with top-line results expected in the second half of 2026. This positions lanifibranor potentially as the second oral drug approved for MASH in the United States, which could significantly increase revenue.
Inventiva has strategically prioritized resources towards lanifibranor’s development, including regulatory preparation and commercialization efforts, while cutting preclinical activities unrelated to lanifibranor and reducing workforce by approximately 50%. This focus could lead to improved net margins by optimizing operational efficiency.
Partnerships in key Asian markets with licenses in Japan, South Korea, and China are expected to position lanifibranor as a leading treatment for MASH in these regions. Collaborations with partners like Hepalys and CTTQ could increase earnings from milestone payments and future market penetration.
Strong financial backing from dilutive and nondilutive financing operations, including a structured deal worth up to €348 million, ensures a cash runway sufficient to reach September 2026 with the second tranche. This financial strength can support sustained investment in commercialization, potentially boosting future earnings.
With no other oral liver-targeted drug candidates in Phase III for MASH, Inventiva’s unique position in a growing market with a high prevalence of conditions like type 2 diabetes enhances the drug’s potential impact on net revenue growth, given the unmet medical needs in this segment.

Inventiva Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Inventiva's revenue will grow by 53.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Inventiva will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Inventiva's profit margin will increase from -1307.0% to the average GB Biotechs industry of 7.9% in 3 years.
If Inventiva's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach €4.0 million (and earnings per share of €0.03) by about September 2028, up from €-184.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €171.1 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €-214.4 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 268.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -3.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Biotechs industry at 14.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.28%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Inventiva Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The decision to stop all preclinical activities not related to lanifibranor and reduce the workforce by approximately 50% could impact the company's ability to innovate and diversify, potentially affecting future revenues and margins.
The net loss for the full year 2024 was €184.2 million, significantly up from €110.4 million in 2023, indicating higher operating costs or expenses, which could affect the company's profitability and net margins.
Revenues decreased from €17.5 million in 2023 to €9.2 million in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in achieving consistent income streams, which could impact future earnings.
Heavy reliance on the success of lanifibranor, especially as other projects are halted, poses a risk to revenue if the drug fails to perform as expected in clinical trials or the market.
The need for additional financing beyond current measures suggests potential cash flow issues, which might lead to further dilution or debt, impacting net margins and earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €6.45 for Inventiva based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €10.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €3.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €50.9 million, earnings will come to €4.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 268.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.3%.
Given the current share price of €4.8, the analyst price target of €6.45 is 25.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Boost Inventiva Price Target Amid Optimism for MASH Market and Pipeline Progress