Allogeneic CAR T Pipeline And AstraZeneca Partnership Will Drive Long-Term Upside

Catalysts

About Cellectis

Cellectis is a clinical stage biotechnology company developing allogeneic CAR T cell therapies and in vivo gene editing solutions for hard to treat cancers and genetic disorders.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Progression of lasme cel, UCART22, into a pivotal Phase II trial in relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia positions Cellectis for a potential first commercial product in a high unmet need indication. This could materially increase revenue and improve operating leverage as fixed R&D costs are spread over a broader base.
• Expansion of the eti cel, UCART20x22, program toward Phase II preparation in 2026, targeting late line non Hodgkin lymphoma after prior CD19 exposure, taps into a growing pool of patients cycling through earlier autologous CAR T options. This supports a durable second wave of product driven revenue and margin expansion as manufacturing scales.
• The multi asset collaboration with AstraZeneca across allogeneic CAR T for hematologic malignancies, solid tumors and in vivo gene therapy provides ongoing non dilutive funding and milestone potential. This can offset R&D spend, support cash runway into the second half of 2027 and reduce dilution pressure on future earnings.
• Potential recovery of CD19 product rights and financial compensation through the Servier arbitration could restore a strategically important target franchise and inject incremental cash. This would strengthen the balance sheet while adding optionality for new revenue streams or partnerships that enhance long term earnings power.
• Broadening clinical site networks in the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom and the planned Investor R&D Day with full Phase I data disclosure are expected to accelerate trial enrollment and improve investor and partner visibility. This can de risk timelines, support more efficient use of cash and ultimately bring forward the inflection point for revenue and net income.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Cellectis's revenue will remain fairly flat over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Cellectis will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Cellectis's profit margin will increase from -42.8% to the average US Biotechs industry of 41.2% in 3 years.
• If Cellectis's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $33.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.45) by about December 2028, up from $-35.4 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -9.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 10.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.32% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.76%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Despite regulatory alignment for a pivotal Phase II trial, lasme cel and eti cel could still generate underwhelming efficacy or durability data in late stage studies, which would undermine the investment thesis around a near term commercial launch and pressure long term revenue and earnings growth.
• The company remains dependent on significant ongoing R and D spending while not yet profitable, and if the capital markets for biotech stay challenging or non dilutive milestone inflows from partners like AstraZeneca are delayed, Cellectis may face dilutionary equity raises that weigh on earnings per share and net margins.
• The arbitration with Servier over CD19 rights introduces binary legal and financial uncertainty, and an unfavorable or limited award outcome would remove a potential cash inflow and strategic asset, weakening the balance sheet and constraining future revenue diversification and margin expansion.
• Allogeneic CAR T and gene editing are highly competitive, rapidly evolving fields, and if rival autologous or allogeneic platforms achieve superior safety, durability or first line positioning, Cellectis could lose share in key indications, limiting pricing power and capping long term revenue and operating leverage.
• Regulatory perceptions of lymphodepletion regimens, including the continued use of alemtuzumab, could shift negatively following safety events in the broader sector, leading to stricter trial requirements, slower enrollment or label constraints that raise development costs and compress future net margins and cash flows.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €6.5 for Cellectis based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $80.5 million, earnings will come to $33.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of €4.01, the analyst price target of €6.5 is 38.2% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying business to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.