Elevated Climate Risk And Diversification Will Unlock Reinsurance Value

Key Takeaways

• SCOR's data-driven underwriting and business diversification enhance profitability, resilience, and open access to new markets amid rising reinsurance demand from global volatility.
  
• Strong capital management and Life & Health growth position SCOR to benefit from regulatory shifts and ESG trends, supporting revenue expansion and shareholder value.
  
• Heightened catastrophe exposure, legal disputes, competitive pressures, and currency volatility threaten SCOR's revenue growth, margins, and overall financial resilience.

Catalysts

Provides life and non-life reinsurance products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.

• SCOR is actively positioned to benefit from heightened demand for reinsurance fueled by the increasing frequency of climate-related catastrophes and continued global volatility; this ongoing structural demand supports premium growth and resilient top-line revenue expansion.
  
• The company's disciplined underwriting, strategic shift towards more profitable and diversifying lines, and consistently strong attritional loss ratio indicate it is leveraging data-driven risk selection and capitalizing on technology adoption, which should translate into sustained improvement in net margins and underwriting profitability.
  
• Ongoing geographic and business diversification-including growing exposure in alternative solutions, engineering, and international casualty-provides access to untapped markets, aligning with the broader trend of rising insurance penetration globally, which expands SCOR's revenue base.
  
• Robust capital management, a strong solvency ratio (210%), and opportunistic buffer building provide SCOR both resilience against shocks and flexibility for future dividend increases or share buybacks, supporting future earnings per share and shareholder returns.
  
• SCOR's strong pipeline in Life & Health and anticipated growth in longevity and financial solutions positions the company to capture structural industry opportunity in closing the global protection gap, particularly as regulatory trends and ESG focus reward highly capitalized, innovative, and responsible reinsurers, boosting both revenue and long-term profitability.

SCOR Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming SCOR's revenue will grow by 5.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.3% today to 4.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €816.0 million (and earnings per share of €4.59) by about August 2028, up from €541.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €697.4 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 9.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Insurance industry at 11.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.14% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

SCOR Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• SCOR's underlying insurance revenue growth guidance for 2025 has been revised down to "flattish" (from previously low-to-mid single digit), due to factors like a large contract commutation, negative premium revisions in agriculture, and weak U.S. casualty renewals; if these trends persist, revenue growth could stagnate, limiting future top-line expansion.
  
• The environment is characterized by rising competition in reinsurance, especially in property-catastrophe and specialty lines, with evidence of rate decreases in non-proportional treaties; this increased competition could pressure margins and profitability, impacting net income and future earnings.
  
• SCOR has materially increased its net exposure to North American hurricanes (net PML up 40–50% year-on-year), largely through higher gross exposures and retaining more risk; given the secular trend of more frequent and severe climate-related catastrophes, this raises the risk of higher catastrophe losses, which could negatively impact the company's combined ratio and net margins if large events occur.
  
• Ongoing and escalating legal disputes with Covéa-including new arbitration requests contesting prior settlement agreements-pose a material legal and financial risk, with potential for adverse outcomes or delayed resolutions that could impact capital adequacy, required provisions, and ultimately net equity and solvency ratios.
  
• The negative impacts of FX volatility have already offset a large part of value creation in the first half of 2025, and SCOR remains exposed to market risk and currency swings; continued adverse FX movements could reduce reported earnings and SOLVENCY II ratios even if underlying operational results remain strong.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €30.811 for SCOR based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €34.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €25.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €18.7 billion, earnings will come to €816.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.6%.
  
• Given the current share price of €28.98, the analyst price target of €30.81 is 5.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.