AMUN: Distribution Partnerships And Earnings Guidance Will Shape Future Performance Balance

Amundi's analyst price target has inched higher by about EUR 0.70 to EUR 74.50, as analysts modestly upgrade fair value assumptions and future earnings expectations despite continued uncertainty around distribution agreements.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates present a mixed but generally constructive view on Amundi, with price targets moving both higher and lower as analysts reassess growth, distribution risks, and valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have nudged price targets higher into the low to mid EUR 70s, reflecting greater confidence in Amundi's ability to execute on its strategic plan and sustain earnings growth.
Upward revisions toward the EUR 80 range suggest some see room for multiple expansion if market conditions remain supportive and Amundi continues to deliver on cost discipline and inflows.
Positive stance from Buy rated research indicates that, despite known distribution uncertainties, the core franchise, scale advantages, and fee generation capacity are viewed as underappreciated in the current share price.
Incremental target hikes signal that recent operating performance has generally met or exceeded expectations, supporting a constructive medium term growth narrative.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts and more cautious houses have trimmed targets toward the mid EUR 60s, pointing to limited upside at current levels if growth normalizes and market beta remains subdued.
The downgrade to a more neutral stance and lower target around EUR 66 underscores concern that uncertainty around key distribution agreements could weigh on future net inflows and fee visibility.
JPMorgan's successive target reductions into the low to high EUR 60s highlight a view that earnings momentum may slow, warranting a more conservative valuation multiple.
Equal Weight and Neutral ratings cluster around the low 70s, suggesting that for some, execution risks and macro sensitivity offset Amundi's scale benefits, capping near term re rating potential.

What's in the News

Amundi set new 2028 financial guidance, targeting earnings per share of more than EUR 7, signaling confidence in medium term profitability and growth (Corporate Guidance).
Amundi and ICG entered a 10 year strategic partnership, making Amundi the exclusive global wealth channel distributor for selected ICG products, while Amundi acquires a 9.9% economic stake in ICG to deepen the relationship and expand private assets distribution (Client Announcements).
The Amundi ICG partnership will open access for more than 200 million individual investors in Amundi's network to ICG's private markets strategies through solutions tailored to wealth management and retirement planning (Client Announcements).
Amundi reached an agreement in principle with Societe Generale to renew their long term distribution and securities services partnership for five years, reinforcing Amundi's role as primary provider of savings and investment solutions to Societe Generale's retail networks (Client Announcements).
Amundi's board scheduled a meeting on October 27, 2025, to review financial statements for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, which may provide further visibility on execution versus guidance (Board Meeting).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has risen slightly from €73.80 to approximately €74.47, reflecting a modest uplift in long term fundamentals.
Discount Rate has increased marginally from about 11.34% to 11.57%, implying a slightly higher required return in the valuation model.
Revenue Growth assumptions have edged slightly lower from around minus 19.21% to minus 19.23%, indicating a very small deterioration in the near term outlook.
Net Profit Margin has improved fractionally from roughly 38.30% to 38.38%, pointing to a minor upgrade in profitability expectations.
Future P/E has moved up modestly from about 15.2x to 15.4x, suggesting a small increase in the multiple applied to forward earnings.

Growth in European ETFs and responsible investments could drive future revenue increases by capturing more market share.
Strategic geographic expansion and partnerships in Asia suggest revenue growth via increased market penetration and client assets.
Proposed French tax may reduce Amundi's net profits while strategic challenges and competition in Europe and Asia could affect growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About Amundi

Amundi is a publically owned investment manager.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Amundi's strong growth in ETF assets and inflows, particularly with a focus on responsible investments, points to potential future revenue increases as the firm continues to capture significant market share in the European ETF market.
The expansion in Technology & Services, with technology revenues up by 42%, highlights anticipated earnings growth as Amundi diversifies and increases its client base across geographies.
The partnership with SBI in India and a direct presence in other Asian markets underscore an expected rise in revenues from increased market penetration and capturing growing client assets in these regions.
Strategic investments in fixed income platforms, which have generated notable inflows, suggest enhanced long-term revenue growth driven by demand for secure and attractive return solutions.
The successful integration of Alpha Associates and the planned partnership with Victory Capital indicate potential enhancements in net margins and earnings, leveraging synergies and expanded product offerings in private markets and U.S. opportunities.

Amundi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Amundi's revenue will decrease by 18.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 24.4% today to 39.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €1.5 billion (and earnings per share of €7.09) by about September 2028, down from €1.7 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as €1.6 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Capital Markets industry at 19.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.05% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.76%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Amundi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The exceptional tax contribution proposed by the French government could significantly impact Amundi's net profits, with estimated additional tax charges of between €60-70 million for 2024 and €40-50 million for 2025, potentially reducing net margins.
Amundi's exit from a large European insurance multi-asset mandate results in the loss of €12 billion in AUM, which may negatively affect asset management fees and thus impact revenue growth.
Continued competition in Italy, especially from sovereign bonds like BTPs, may lead to sustained outflows from Amundi's Italian retail networks, potentially affecting revenue and inflows.
While Amundi sees growth in Asian joint ventures, challenges in the Chinese market, including regulatory changes and risk aversion from clients, have led to net outflows in certain areas, potentially impacting overall earnings.
The anticipated change in interest rates may affect the shift between treasury assets and more lucrative active and passive funds, which could delay improvements in margins and revenue growth if retail investors remain risk-averse.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €76.521 for Amundi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €89.9, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €68.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €3.7 billion, earnings will come to €1.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.8%.
Given the current share price of €62.2, the analyst price target of €76.52 is 18.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Earnings Expansion Will Continue Despite Shifting Market Expectations And Margin Pressure