Last Update 03 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.91%

OPM: Future Performance Will Hinge On Earnings Delivery And Leadership Transition

Analysts have nudged their price target for OPmobility higher to EUR 17 from EUR 16.30, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions on fair value, discount rate, and future earnings multiples.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates highlight a modestly more constructive stance on OPmobility, with bullish analysts pointing to incremental upside in both earnings power and valuation as near term execution risks appear more contained.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the higher price target as reflecting improved conviction in OPmobility's medium term growth trajectory, particularly as visibility on order intake and program ramp ups improves.
The revised valuation framework assumes more resilient margins, suggesting that cost discipline and operational efficiency are expected to support earnings even in a slower macro environment.
Upside is seen in the potential for multiple expansion if the company continues to deliver on guidance, narrowing the perceived gap versus higher quality peers in the mobility and auto components space.
The maintenance of a positive rating alongside the higher target indicates that analysts still view the risk reward as attractive, with current trading levels not fully reflecting anticipated cash flow generation.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts would note that the target price increase is incremental rather than transformational, underscoring that upside is viewed as measured, not explosive.
The revised assumptions still embed a discount to sector leaders, implying lingering concerns around OPmobility's execution track record and its ability to fully close the profitability gap.
Sensitivity to macro and auto demand cycles remains a constraint on valuation, with any slowdown in production volumes or delays in new platform launches likely to pressure earnings expectations.
There is limited margin for error in delivering on forecast cost savings and operational improvements, leaving the stock vulnerable if near term performance falls short of updated projections.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors accepted the resignation of CEO Laurent Favre for personal reasons and unanimously appointed long-time executive Félicie Burelle as Chief Executive Officer, reaffirming confidence in the existing profitable growth strategy (Key Developments).
New CEO Félicie Burelle, who has over two decades at OPmobility and six years as Deputy CEO, will oversee the process to identify and appoint a new Chief Executive Officer expected during 2026, signaling an orderly leadership transition (Key Developments).
OPmobility confirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, targeting improved operating margin and net result, Group share, compared with 2024 while continuing to deleverage through further reduction of net debt (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has risen slightly from approximately €13.36 to €13.61 per share, reflecting a modest uplift in the intrinsic valuation estimate.
Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 10.78 percent to 10.62 percent, indicating a marginally lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth assumptions are essentially unchanged at around 1.14 percent, suggesting no material revision to top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin has inched up marginally from roughly 2.69 percent to 2.69 percent, pointing to a very small improvement in expected profitability.
Future P/E has risen slightly from about 8.91x to 9.04x, implying a small expansion in the valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

Overly optimistic growth and margin expectations may not materialize due to market volatility, EV transition, and risks from global automotive shifts.
Exposure to China and capital demands for innovation, regulations, and supply chains could pressure both revenue stability and future cash flow.
Strong order growth, cost discipline, strategic expansion, and alignment with electrification trends position OPmobility for resilient revenue and margin expansion across global markets.

Catalysts

About OPmobility

Designs and produces intelligent exterior systems, customized complex modules, lighting systems, energy storage systems, and electrification solutions for all mobility players in Europe, North America, China, rest of Asia, South America, the Middle East, and Africa.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The stock may be overvalued due to overly optimistic expectations for revenue growth from OPmobility's expansion in Asia and North America, despite management acknowledging production declines, volatile market conditions, and lingering impacts of trade disruptions. Anticipated future revenue growth could disappoint if vehicle production remains weak or regional market gains take longer to materialize.
Investors may be pricing in sustained margin improvement based on recent strong cost controls and reduced SG&A, but these gains could be at risk if the shift toward EVs with simpler architectures accelerates-potentially reducing OPmobility's content per vehicle and pressuring future net margins.
The current valuation likely assumes OPmobility will capitalize on long-term industry transformation (EV adoption, OEM outsourcing, greater electronic content), but rapid advances in vehicle technology could outpace the company's ability to innovate or shift its product mix, ultimately weighing on future earnings growth.
The market may be expecting the company's strong China footprint and pivot toward Chinese OEMs to deliver high revenue and stable growth, yet escalating trade barriers or a slowdown in China's automotive sector could expose OPmobility to heightened revenue and cost risks.
Stock prices may reflect confidence in robust free cash flow and continued deleveraging, but future capital needs for R&D, compliance with emissions/efficiency regulations, or unforeseen supply chain challenges could undermine both earnings and free cash flow forecasts.

OPmobility Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming OPmobility's revenue will grow by 1.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.5% today to 2.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €291.9 million (and earnings per share of €1.68) by about July 2028, up from €160.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €355.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €210.0 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 12.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Auto Components industry at 12.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

OPmobility Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

OPmobility's strong order intake and record of outperforming regional markets (notably in Europe and Asia) indicate resilient revenue growth and potential for further market share gains, supported by a diversified customer base and successful adaptation to shifts such as increased exposure to Chinese OEMs and new mobility markets-each providing a solid foundation for sustained top-line expansion.
The company has demonstrated effective and ongoing cost control, with significant reductions in SG&A and CapEx while maintaining investment in innovation and geographic expansion, directly supporting improvements in operating and net margins-suggesting an enhanced ability to weather macroeconomic volatility and drive earnings growth.
OPmobility is leveraging long-term industry trends in electrification and advanced technology, as evidenced by its ramp-up in electrification, hydrogen, and smart module solutions, as well as strong order pipelines for lighting and exterior systems; this aligns with rising global demand for EVs, advanced electronic content, and lighter, smarter vehicle components-supporting both revenue and margin expansion.
The company's balanced geographic footprint (with manufacturing close to end markets), robust financial structure (including lower leverage and strong liquidity), and agile production network reduce exposure to trade barriers and supply chain disruptions, bolstering financial stability and long-term earnings visibility.
Strategic moves to consolidate #1 positions in Europe, grow with emerging OEMs in China and Asia, and expand in high-growth regions such as India and North America, position OPmobility to capitalize on secular shifts in the automotive value chain-potentially driving outsized revenue and earnings growth as traditional OEM relationships are supplemented with new entrants and broader application of core technologies.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €12.08 for OPmobility based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €7.4.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €11.0 billion, earnings will come to €291.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
Given the current share price of €13.58, the analyst price target of €12.08 is 12.4% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Raise OPmobility Price Target Citing Stable Margins and Improved Risk Outlook