Bavarian Nordic

Local Spread Of New Mpox Strain Will Challenge Future Vaccine Margins

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

10 Feb 25

Updated

02 Dec 25

Views

164

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-5.2%

7D

-2.9%

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1Y

-5.2%

7D

-2.9%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 3 6:10 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

DKK 26029.4% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 02 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 4.00%

BAVA: Procurement Agreement And Margin Outlook Signal Upside For Shares

Analysts have raised their price target for Bavarian Nordic from €250 to €260. They cite improvements in projected profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios, even though there is a modest increase in the discount rate and a slightly weaker revenue growth outlook.

Shared on 24 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 2.46%

Narrative Update on Bavarian Nordic Analysts have raised their fair value price target for Bavarian Nordic from €244 to €250, citing modest improvements in valuation assumptions and financial projections. What's in the News Officials in California have confirmed community spread of the new clade 1 Mpox strain among residents with no recent international travel.

Shared on 27 Aug 25

Fair value Increased 4.05%

Despite a deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, a modest improvement in net profit margin has supported a slight increase in Bavarian Nordic's fair value, with the target price rising from DKK234.50 to DKK244.00. What's in the News Nordic Capital and Permira have proposed to acquire Bavarian Nordic for DKK 18.1 billion (DKK 233 per share), a 21% premium to the prior closing price; board and management have agreed to tender their shares, and a delisting is planned upon completion, subject to customary conditions.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 20%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 10%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 3.05%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 13 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 5.20%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -2.4% to 0.8%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

DKK 260

29.4% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

-0.21%

Biotech revenue growth rate

9.67%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

5.16%

Calculation

DKK 1.04b

Earnings '28

x

22.42x

PE Ratio '28

=

DKK 23.28b

Market Cap '28

DKK 23.28b

Market Cap '28

/

77.37m

No. shares '28

=

DKK 300.83

Share Price '28

DKK 300.83 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 5.15% p.a.

=

DKK 258.74

Fair Value '25