Launches Of Nubeqa And Preceon Corn Will Strengthen Future Performance

Key Takeaways

• Pharmaceutical and agriculture innovations are key strategies for growth, offsetting generic competition and boosting future revenues.
  
• Organizational transformation and litigation efforts are expected to enhance profitability and stabilize cash flow.
  
• Bayer faces challenges including generic pricing pressures, litigation risks, and foreign exchange headwinds, threatening revenue, margins, and profitability across divisions.

Catalysts

Die Bayer Aktiengesellschaft ist als Life-Science-Unternehmen weltweit tätig.

• Bayer is expecting a significant positive impact from its pharmaceutical launch assets, particularly Nubeqa and Kerendia, as they accelerate growth and help offset the expected decline due to Xarelto's loss of exclusivity. This is likely to positively impact future revenue and earnings.
  
• Bayer is focusing on its innovation pipeline, including the launch of new blockbusters in the agriculture sector such as the Preceon Smart Corn System and biotech versions slated for future releases, which should help drive revenue growth and improve net margins.
  
• The company is undergoing an organizational transformation with its new Dynamic Shared Ownership operating model, which has already led to cost reductions. This focus on efficiency is expected to contribute positively to profitability, helping to stabilize net margins and cash flow.
  
• In Consumer Health, Bayer plans to optimize resource allocation and investment focus on leading brands, such as Bepanthen and Claritin. This strategic move aims to improve sales volumes and profitability, impacting both revenue growth and earnings.
  
• Bayer is advancing its efforts in litigation containment which, if successful, could reduce financial uncertainties and litigation costs, ultimately benefiting net earnings and improving cash flow stability in the longer term.

Bayer Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bayer's revenue will decrease by 0.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -1.9% today to 5.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.8 billion (and earnings per share of €2.85) by about December 2027, up from €-880.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €4.6 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €1.9 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.5x on those 2027 earnings, up from -22.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Pharmaceuticals industry at 19.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.3%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bayer Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Regulatory challenges and generic pricing pressures in Bayer's Crop Protection business may reduce revenue and net margins as the company faces increased competition and pressure on pricing.
  
• The agriculture market's expected decline and reduced corn acreage in key regions like Argentina and Brazil could lower Bayer's revenue and earnings, particularly in the Crop Science division.
  
• Litigation risks, particularly concerning glyphosate, could lead to financial uncertainty and potential liabilities, negatively impacting Bayer's overall earnings and cash flow.
  
• Foreign exchange headwinds, especially in regions like Latin America, can adversely affect Bayer's top line and divisional margins, potentially compromising revenue and profitability.
  
• Rising generic competition, especially for key pharmaceutical products like Xarelto, poses risks of accelerated margin erosion and revenue decline in Bayer's Pharmaceuticals division.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €28.0 for Bayer based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €45.1, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €22.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be €48.0 billion, earnings will come to €2.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.3%.
• Given the current share price of €20.0, the analyst's price target of €28.0 is 28.6% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.