Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Drive Earnings Thanks To Copper Supply Disruptions

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

07 Nov 24

Updated

12 Nov 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

14.2%

7D

0.9%

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1Y

14.2%

7D

0.9%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 13 5:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

R$71.087.7% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 12 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 1.08%

VALE3: Revenue Momentum And Base Metals Performance Will Offset Market Caution

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Vale, raising it by $0.76. This adjustment reflects stronger revenue growth forecasts and improved performance in the Base Metals segment.

Shared on 29 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 0.25%

Vale's analyst price target has been modestly increased, rising from $13.50 to $14. Analysts cite improved profit margins and supportive trends in precious and base metal markets as contributing factors.

Shared on 14 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 4.16%

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vale from approximately $67.35 to $70.15. This change reflects tempered optimism due to the company's ongoing cost-cutting, gradual copper expansion, and broadly cautious sentiment on iron ore market fundamentals.

Shared on 27 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 1.87%

Vale’s consensus price target was modestly raised to R$67.35 as bullish analysts cite resilient iron ore prices and cost reductions, though sentiment is tempered by concerns over China demand, macro headwinds, and regulatory risks. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note improved conviction in iron ore price resilience and potential for recovery in global steel demand.

Shared on 05 Sep 25

Fair value Decreased 1.36%

Vale’s fair value estimate saw a negligible reduction, as consensus revenue growth and discount rate projections remained largely unchanged, resulting in only a minor decrease in the analyst price target from R$67.03 to R$66.11. What's in the News Vale and BHP offered $1.4B to settle a UK class action lawsuit related to the Mariana dam disaster, but claimants’ lawyers are demanding about $3B (Financial Times).

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 9.69%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.59%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 4.5% to 4.0% and increased shares outstanding growth rate from -0.0% to -0.0%.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.79%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 5.4% to 4.5%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 5.08%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 3.6% to 5.4%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 2.68%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.66%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 4.06%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 4.7% to 3.4%.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 8.24%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased profit margin from 16.6% to 18.5%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

R$71.08

7.7% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

1.23%

Metals and Mining revenue growth rate

18.04%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

21.36%

Calculation

R$8.58b

Earnings '28

x

14.66x

PE Ratio '28

=

R$125.82b

Market Cap '28

R$125.82b

Market Cap '28

/

5.22b

No. shares '28

=

R$24.10

Share Price '28

R$24.10 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 21.36% p.a.

=

R$13.48

Fair Value '25