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Slowing Chinese Demand Will Expose Iron Ore Valuation Risk

Published
11 Dec 24
Updated
05 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
10.8%
7D
4.8%

Author's Valuation

R$5.398.5% overvalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 05 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.48%

CMIN3: Rising Discount Rate And Weak Margins Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for CSN Mineração from $5.42 to $5.39, citing reduced profit margin expectations and softer revenue growth forecasts as key factors in the adjustment. Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate: Revised downward marginally from R$5.42 to R$5.39.

Shared on 10 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 2.04%

Analysts have raised their price target for CSN Mineração from $5.31 to $5.42, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a more optimistic outlook on the company's revenue trajectory. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Increased slightly from R$5.31 to R$5.42 per share.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 4.87%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 5.78%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 5.64%

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.64%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -0.5% to -3.3%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 2.42%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 2.09%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -5.2% to -0.5% and decreased profit margin from 8.0% to 7.0%.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 1.31%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.88%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -5.0% to -5.5%, decreased profit margin from 11.0% to 8.1% and increased future PE multiple from 29.5x to 43.2x.