Opening New Hospitals Will Boost Patient Capacity And Treatment Capabilities

Key Takeaways

• New hospitals and expansions drive future revenue growth through increased patient capacity and scale efficiencies.
  
• Focus on complex surgeries and cash flow management enhances profit margins and financial flexibility, supporting earnings stability and shareholder returns.
  
• A shift to complex surgeries and high delinquency rates strain revenue, while inflation and rising legal costs jeopardize financial stability and margins.

Catalysts

Operates a network of hospitals in Brazil.

• Rede D'Or has recently opened three new greenfield hospitals with aggressive ramp-up expectations, which could drive future revenue growth through increased operational beds and patient capacity.
  
• Significant expansions and new openings, including the new tower at Alianca Hospital and upcoming facilities in 2025, are expected to support medium-term revenue growth and enhance earning potential through scale efficiencies.
  
• Ongoing accreditation of hospitals and partnerships, such as Atlantica D'Or, with plans for further accreditations, suggest improving patient mix and higher occupancy rates, potentially enhancing both revenue and net margins.
  
• The focus on complex surgeries and a higher average ticket, aided by integration across oncology and hospital services, positions Rede D'Or to target higher-margin procedures, potentially boosting profit margins and earnings.
  
• Effective cash flow management and deleveraging efforts, alongside strategic investments, suggest enhanced financial flexibility for future growth initiatives, thereby stabilizing earnings and supporting shareholder returns.

Rede D'Or São Luiz Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Rede D'Or São Luiz's revenue will grow by 12.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.3% today to 8.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach R$6.0 billion (and earnings per share of R$2.79) by about December 2027, up from R$3.6 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.8x on those 2027 earnings, up from 17.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the BR Healthcare industry at 23.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.59% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 17.18%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Rede D'Or São Luiz Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company experienced a reduction in occupancy rates in certain hospitals, such as those in Macae and Olinda, due to decredation, which could potentially impact revenue negatively.
  
• There is a noted drop in the number of surgeries year-on-year by 72%, indicating a shift towards more complex surgeries; while the average ticket price has increased, there is a risk of volume or revenue decline from fewer procedures if not managed properly.
  
• The financial flexibility and robustness of the company may face challenges if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, potentially impacting debt repayment abilities and overall financial stability.
  
• Accounts receivable remain high, and the company has faced issues with delinquency from some payers, which could strain cash flow and liquidity.
  
• The company's exposure to judicialization in the health sector and the risk of increasing fraud cases may lead to rising administrative and legal expenses, negatively affecting net margins and profitability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of R$39.42 for Rede D'Or São Luiz based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of R$45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just R$34.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be R$69.9 billion, earnings will come to R$6.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 17.2%.
• Given the current share price of R$28.02, the analyst's price target of R$39.42 is 28.9% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.