Last Update 15 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 4.08%

ARGX: Future Pipeline Readouts Will Balance Post Rally Expectations And Execution Risks

Analysts have nudged their average price target on argenx modestly higher by about $30 per share. This reflects stronger assumed revenue growth and higher future valuation multiples, even as they temper margin expectations in light of a more selective, probability-weighted view of the Vyvgart and empasiprubart pipelines.

Analyst Commentary

Street research remains broadly constructive on argenx, with most recent notes pointing to a larger, more durable earnings and cash flow profile anchored by Vyvgart and an expanding late stage pipeline. At the same time, some more cautious views have emerged around the risk reward at current levels and the need for continued flawless execution across multiple indications.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have raised price targets meaningfully, citing a higher long term revenue trajectory for Vyvgart and empasiprubart as the opportunity set across autoimmune indications becomes better defined.
Several models now incorporate additional Vyvgart indications and one or more new uses for empasiprubart, framing a pipeline contribution that they view as underappreciated in current valuation multiples.
Recent quarterly performance, including Vyvgart sales, is viewed as validating demand in generalized myasthenia gravis and supporting assumptions for geographic expansion and label broadening into seronegative patients.
Positive topline data and a dense calendar of Phase 3 readouts over the next 12 to 24 months are seen as key catalysts that could unlock further upside to consensus estimates and justify premium growth multiples.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts acknowledge the fundamental strength of the story but argue that, after the recent rerating, the upside is no longer compelling enough to justify a top ranking within high conviction idea lists.
There is concern that expectations for Vyvgart may be approaching a level where any slowdown in uptake, competitive pressure, or regulatory delays in new indications could trigger multiple compression.
Some models explicitly discount lower probability programs and more speculative indications, highlighting execution risk across the broader pipeline and the potential for negative surprises as data matures.
With the share price reflecting a robust success curve across multiple autoimmune indications, more cautious voices emphasize the asymmetric impact of clinical or commercial setbacks versus incremental positive data.

What's in the News

Health Canada authorized Vyvgart SC as the first innovative treatment in more than 30 years for adults with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, based on positive ADHERE Phase 3 data showing clinical improvement in 69% of treated patients (Key Developments).
New Vyvgart data at the 2025 AANEM/MGFA meetings highlighted strong efficacy and safety across generalized myasthenia gravis subpopulations, including pivotal Phase 3 ADAPT SERON results in AChR antibody seronegative patients and steroid-sparing benefits (Key Developments).
Long term ADAPT-SC+ extension results showed Vyvgart SC was well tolerated over up to 33 treatment cycles, with no new safety signals and most patients achieving minimal symptom expression (Key Developments).
argenx scheduled a special shareholders meeting for November 18, 2025, in Amsterdam to vote on a revised remuneration policy (Key Developments).
FUJIFILM Biotechnologies expanded its global manufacturing partnership with argenx and will begin producing efgartigimod drug substance at its Holly Springs, North Carolina site from 2028, supporting global supply for Vyvgart indications (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from €766.06 to €797.32 per share, reflecting modestly higher long term earnings expectations.
Discount Rate is essentially unchanged, ticking up marginally from 5.52% to 5.52%, implying a similar overall risk assessment for future cash flows.
Revenue Growth assumptions have risen slightly, moving from about 30.2% to 31.0%, indicating a somewhat steeper projected top line trajectory.
Net Profit Margin expectations have edged down slightly, from roughly 39.1% to 38.9%, incorporating higher investment needs and a more conservative margin profile.
Future P/E multiple has increased moderately, from 20.4x to 21.2x, suggesting a somewhat richer valuation being applied to anticipated earnings.

Broadening indications and effective global expansion for Vyvgart, alongside pipeline progress, are driving strong, sustained revenue and margin growth.
Strategic partnerships and advances in disease targeting are expanding market opportunities and operational efficiencies, supporting long-term growth potential.
Intensifying competition, pricing pressures, and reliance on a single product threaten argenx's profitability amid increasing rebate burdens and ongoing uncertainty in drug reimbursement.

Catalysts

About argenx

A commercial-stage biopharma company, develops various therapies for the treatment of autoimmune diseases in the United States, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The global increase in autoimmune and chronic diseases due to population aging continues to expand the long-term addressable patient population for argenx's therapies, supporting sustainable multi-year revenue growth as Vyvgart and future pipeline assets gain additional indications and market penetration.
Ongoing expansion of Vyvgart into new indications (e.g., CIDP, seronegative MG, ocular MG) and geographies, along with strong uptake of self-administered formulations like the prefilled syringe, is driving durable volume/revenue growth and enabling operational leverage that could materially benefit net margins as the company scales.
Successful advancement of a robust pipeline with multiple late-stage trials across diverse autoimmune conditions (e.g., empasiprubart and ARGX-119) enhances the probability of delivering multiple blockbuster therapies, providing visibility into future top-line and earnings expansion that is not fully reflected in the current valuation.
Strategic collaborations (e.g., with Unnatural Products for AI-driven peptide discovery and regional partners for global commercialization) are increasing operational efficiency, reducing commercial risk, and may boost long-term profitability through margin expansion and accelerated entry into emerging markets.
Advances in genomic and proteomic profiling and increased global healthcare spending are enabling identification and targeting of additional rare and difficult-to-treat diseases, aligning with argenx's focus and creating opportunities for sustained long-term growth in revenues and earnings as the product portfolio expands.

argenx Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming argenx's revenue will grow by 30.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 41.0% today to 38.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.6 billion (and earnings per share of $40.61) by about September 2028, up from $1.3 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $3.6 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.4 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 34.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Biotechs industry at 33.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.8% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.26%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

argenx Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition from both existing large pharmaceutical companies and new entrants, as highlighted by the frequent mentions of a "heating up" competitive environment (e.g., UPLIZNA and innovation coming to the MG and CIDP markets), may pressure argenx's market share and limit its ability to sustain premium pricing for VYVGART and future products-potentially impacting revenue growth and net margins.
Increasing gross-to-net adjustments, largely due to the Medicare Part D redesign and growing product mix complexity (specifically with expansion of the prefilled syringe), have increased discounts and rebates from 12% to ~20% within six months; while management says net revenue per patient is holding steady for now, further increases in gross-to-net (which they expect will "creep up") could pressure net margins and ultimately reduce earnings leverage if net price erosion occurs.
Heavy dependence on VYVGART as the principal revenue driver exposes the company to significant product concentration risk; any regulatory, safety (such as potential FAERS signal requiring label change), or competitive disruptions could sharply reduce both revenues and profitability, especially since expansion into other indications and pipeline diversification is still in early stages.
Persistent industry-wide scrutiny over drug pricing (notably Medicare/IRA-related negotiations and global pressure on reimbursement) creates longer-term uncertainty regarding the sustainability of high list-prices for novel biologics, which may lead to restrictive reimbursement, lower net realized prices, and dampen top-line revenue growth across key geographies (notably the US and EU).
Despite robust operational and early commercial performance, argenx's ongoing high R&D and SG&A spending (Q2 expenses totaled $766M, with R&D at $328M and SG&A at $325M) combined with the need for large-scale investment in supply chain and potential acquisitions means profitability and cash flow could be pressured if new pipeline launches are delayed or fail to achieve commercial success-negatively affecting net margins and earnings trajectory.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €712.238 for argenx based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €885.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €480.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.9 billion, earnings will come to $2.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.3%.
Given the current share price of €610.4, the analyst price target of €712.24 is 14.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

ARGX: Upcoming Phase 3 Readouts and Expanded Access Will Shape Future Outlook