Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 4.98%

RBI: Share Gains Will Likely Stall After Discount Rate Cut

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Raiffeisen Bank International to EUR 32.21 from EUR 30.68, citing a slightly lower discount rate and marginally improved revenue and profit expectations, even as they flag more limited upside from current share levels.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain divided on Raiffeisen Bank International, balancing modestly improved fundamentals against a more constrained upside from current trading levels.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts note that the higher price target reflects slightly stronger revenue and profit visibility, which reinforces confidence in the bank’s earnings execution over the medium term.
They highlight that the reduced discount rate signals improved perceived risk. This supports a higher valuation multiple relative to prior assumptions.
Some see stability in the unchanged lower peer target levels as an indication that Raiffeisen’s current positioning remains reasonably attractive within its regional banking universe.
Incremental upward revisions to forecasts, even if modest, are viewed as a positive signal that consensus estimates could continue to grind higher if operating trends hold.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize that the revised target price implies limited room for appreciation from current levels, which tempers the risk reward profile.
The downgrade to a more neutral stance is framed as a recognition that recent share price performance has already captured much of the anticipated earnings improvement.
Concerns persist that macro and regulatory uncertainties may cap further valuation expansion, particularly if growth in key markets slows or capital requirements tighten.
Some caution that without a clearer catalyst for accelerating growth or structurally higher returns, the stock may continue to trade in a relatively narrow valuation range.

What's in the News

Raiffeisen Bank International has been engaged by CanCambria Energy Corp. as strategic advisor to secure a partner for the Kiskunhalas tight gas project in Hungary, with potential transaction structures including a farm out, equity investment, or partial project sale, though completion is not assured (company announcement).
The Supervisory Board has appointed Kamila Makhmudova as CFO and member of the Management Board effective 1 January 2026, re establishing CFO as a dedicated board area, with the appointment pending regulatory approval (company announcement).
Makhmudova brings more than 20 years of banking experience and a long track record at RBI, including leadership of Corporate Development and Strategic Steering and her current role as CFO of Raiffeisenbank in the Czech Republic (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Raised slightly to €32.21 from €30.68, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
Discount Rate: Reduced marginally to 8.19 percent from 8.31 percent, indicating a small decrease in perceived risk.
Revenue Growth: Forecast contraction eased slightly to minus 3.98 percent from minus 4.08 percent, suggesting a modestly less negative outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Essentially unchanged at around 22.19 percent, down only fractionally from 22.22 percent.
Future P/E: Increased modestly to 7.66x from 7.33x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple on expected earnings.

Robust loan and deposit growth in Central and Eastern Europe, combined with rising digitalization and cashless adoption, is bolstering revenues and creating new fee income opportunities.
Focus on digital transformation and operational efficiency, supported by strong capital ratios, positions the bank well for expansion, acquisitions, and future profitability improvement.
Exposure to geopolitical, regulatory, and litigation risks in core markets threatens profitability, increases cost pressures, and limits Raiffeisen Bank's strategic flexibility and earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Raiffeisen Bank International

Offers banking services to corporate, private, and institutional customers.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong underlying loan and deposit growth, especially in CEE countries like Czechia and Slovakia, is being supported by continued economic convergence and higher demand for modern banking services, indicating healthy revenue and net interest income expansion potential.
Accelerating digitalization and adoption of cashless payment in emerging Europe is driving fee income growth and yielding opportunities for scalable, higher-margin digital products, as evidenced by the strong quarterly rebound in fee income, likely boosting non-interest income and overall earnings.
Successful execution of ongoing market share expansion and deepening presence in structurally underpenetrated CEE banking markets, where banking usage is still relatively low, supports a sustained pipeline for loan book growth and net interest margin resilience over the medium to long term, positively impacting revenue and margins.
Continued investment in digital transformation and operational efficiency is demonstrating progress, with a focus on improving cost-to-income ratios and reducing staff expenses relative to revenues, which is expected to support margin expansion and increased profitability.
High capital ratios (CET1 at 15%+) and ample liquidity support RBI's ability to capture further growth and potentially benefit from sector consolidation, positioning the bank favorably for expansion, "bolt-on" acquisitions, or the launch of new ESG/sustainable finance products-driving revenue growth and enhancing return on equity.

Raiffeisen Bank International Earnings and Revenue Growth

Raiffeisen Bank International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Raiffeisen Bank International's revenue will decrease by 4.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.1% today to 22.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €1.7 billion (and earnings per share of €5.45) by about September 2028, up from €622.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as €2.2 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 6.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 15.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Banks industry at 11.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.07% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.9%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Raiffeisen Bank International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Prolonged exposure and complex exit process from Russian operations present persistent headline, regulatory, and geopolitical risk, including the potential for further legal claims, sanctions-related losses, or forced asset write-downs, which could drive earnings volatility, weigh on capital, and negatively impact net income.
Elevated and unpredictable litigation costs in Poland (especially from Swiss franc and euro mortgage cases) continue to materially depress group ROE and core profitability; the timing and scale of final settlements remain uncertain, constituting a drag on earnings and potential future surprises.
Increasing cost base, specifically ongoing OpEx inflation and higher staff expenses, has resulted in a cost-to-income ratio exceeding 53%, which, if left unaddressed, could erode net margins and diminish capacity to invest in technology or growth areas over the long term.
Over-reliance on Central and Eastern European markets exposes the group to region-specific macroeconomic and currency volatility, as well as potential loan impairments and rising provisioning needs-exacerbated by political or economic shocks-threatening revenue growth and increasing credit risk.
Persistent geopolitical uncertainties and regulatory overhang (including the risk of banking and windfall taxes in Austria and Ukraine, as well as additional overlay provisions for leveraged finance and tariffs) may pressure returns, elevate compliance and capital costs, and introduce greater unpredictability to group earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of €26.882 for Raiffeisen Bank International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €31.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €22.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €7.6 billion, earnings will come to €1.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 6.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
Given the current share price of €29.36, the analyst price target of €26.88 is 9.2% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Core Performance Gains Will Drive Medium-Term Opportunities In CEE Banking