HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Overview
Through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
HCA Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$629.14
FV
39.3% undervalued intrinsic discount5.03%
Revenue growth p.a.
79
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HCA Healthcare, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$382.19 |
| 52 Week High | US$556.52 |
| 52 Week Low | US$331.61 |
| Beta | 1.13 |
| 1 Month Change | -2.42% |
| 3 Month Change | -11.51% |
| 1 Year Change | 12.23% |
| 3 Year Change | 40.09% |
| 5 Year Change | 52.27% |
| Change since IPO | 1,132.08% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 15
HCA Healthcare's Warning Prices In All The Bad News (Upgrade)
Summary HCA Healthcare is upgraded to "Buy" after recent underperformance, with shares now reflecting payer mix and policy headwinds. HCA's Q2 results beat expectations due to a $400 million one-time Medicaid payment, masking underlying margin compression from a worsening payer mix. Guidance was cut, with 2026 EPS now seen at $29–$30 (excluding windfall: ~$28), and free cash flow run-rate at ~$6 billion, reflecting persistent policy pressures. At 13x earnings and a 7.5% free cash flow yield, HCA appears de-risked, with fair value estimated at $400 as policy headwinds are now priced in. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 13
HCA: Medicaid And State Directed Payments Will Reset Earnings While Undervaluation Persists
HCA Healthcare's analyst price target has been trimmed in this update, with fair value moving from about $503.57 to $490.29 as analysts factor in slightly softer long term growth and profit assumptions, along with increased uncertainty around Medicaid and state directed payments. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare points to a more cautious stance around long term growth and policy risk, even as some analysts still see support from core operations and select volume trends.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 15
HCA Healthcare's Warning Prices In All The Bad News (Upgrade)
Summary HCA Healthcare is upgraded to "Buy" after recent underperformance, with shares now reflecting payer mix and policy headwinds. HCA's Q2 results beat expectations due to a $400 million one-time Medicaid payment, masking underlying margin compression from a worsening payer mix. Guidance was cut, with 2026 EPS now seen at $29–$30 (excluding windfall: ~$28), and free cash flow run-rate at ~$6 billion, reflecting persistent policy pressures. At 13x earnings and a 7.5% free cash flow yield, HCA appears de-risked, with fair value estimated at $400 as policy headwinds are now priced in. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jul 13
HCA: Medicaid And State Directed Payments Will Reset Earnings While Undervaluation Persists
HCA Healthcare's analyst price target has been trimmed in this update, with fair value moving from about $503.57 to $490.29 as analysts factor in slightly softer long term growth and profit assumptions, along with increased uncertainty around Medicaid and state directed payments. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare points to a more cautious stance around long term growth and policy risk, even as some analysts still see support from core operations and select volume trends.
New Narrative • Jun 23
Digital And AI Cost Pressures Will Shape A Cautious Yet Resilient Hospital Outlook
Catalysts About HCA Healthcare HCA Healthcare operates hospitals and related outpatient facilities across multiple US markets, providing a wide range of acute care and specialty services. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Jun 16
HCA: Policy Pressure On Medicaid SDP Will Eventually Reset Earnings Expectations
Analysts have trimmed the HCA Healthcare fair value estimate from $510.95 to $503.57, as lower assumed revenue growth, a slightly softer profit margin profile, and a modestly higher discount rate reflect concerns about policy driven pressure on Medicaid and state directed payments, in line with a series of recent price target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on HCA Healthcare has shifted more cautious, with a series of price target cuts pointing to increased focus on policy risk and a slower near term setup for earnings growth.
New Narrative • Jun 09
Capital Investment And Outpatient Expansion Will Reshape Long Term Performance
Catalysts About HCA Healthcare HCA Healthcare operates a large network of hospitals and outpatient facilities that provide acute care, emergency services and a wide range of specialty care across multiple US markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Jun 02
HCA: Georgia Medicaid SDP And CMS Rule Will Shape Future Upside
Analysts trimmed the fair value estimate for HCA Healthcare by about $2 to $510.95, as modestly higher discount rate assumptions and updated views on the proposed CMS Medicaid payment rule outweighed small adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E inputs. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around HCA Healthcare has focused on the evolving Medicaid policy backdrop and recalibrated valuation targets.Narrative Update • May 13
HCA: Georgia Medicaid SDP EBITDA Lift Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have reduced the HCA Healthcare price target to $513.10 from $535.00, as updated models reflect slightly lower assumed revenue growth and profit margins, a higher discount rate, and a trimmed future P/E multiple following a series of recent target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare shows a clear shift toward lower price targets in the near term, even as some earlier reports had pointed to potential upside drivers tied to Medicaid funding and AI related efficiency gains.Narrative Update • Apr 27
HCA: Georgia Medicaid SDP Support Will Shape Future Upside
The analyst price target for HCA Healthcare has been trimmed by $8, reflecting recent downward revisions from several firms, along with updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple, as analysts balance mixed target moves with evolving views on AI driven efficiency and Medicaid tailwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HCA Healthcare reflects a split view, with some firms trimming price targets and others lifting them, as assumptions are updated around valuation, execution on guidance, AI related efficiency potential, and Medicaid related earnings support.Narrative Update • Apr 09
HCA: Georgia Medicaid SDP And AI Efficiency Efforts Will Shape Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their average HCA Healthcare price target by $50, pointing to factors such as CMS approval of Georgia's $1.9b Medicaid SDP program and expectations that AI driven efficiency gains could support higher valuation multiples over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around HCA Healthcare clusters around two themes: how the Georgia Medicaid SDP approval could support earnings and how AI related efficiency efforts could influence valuation multiples over time.Narrative Update • Mar 26
HCA: Future Upside Will Center On Georgia Medicaid SDP Earnings Support
HCA Healthcare's analyst price targets have moved higher by a broad range that stretches into the mid $600s, reflecting analysts' updated models around Georgia's newly approved $1.9b Medicaid SDP program and potential efficiency gains from AI that could influence valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around HCA Healthcare centers on two themes that matter for valuation: the newly approved Georgia Medicaid SDP program and potential AI driven efficiency gains.Narrative Update • Mar 12
HCA: Future Returns Will Rely On AI Efficiency And Medicaid SDP Benefits
Our analyst price target for HCA Healthcare edges higher by about $1 to reflect a modestly higher fair value estimate, as analysts factor in the expected EBITDA benefit from Georgia's newly approved Medicaid program and the potential for a richer valuation multiple tied to efficiency gains, including those related to AI and solid execution on management's 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare clusters around two themes: valuation support tied to AI and efficiency efforts, and the earnings impact of government programs such as Georgia's newly approved Medicaid SDP.Narrative Update • Feb 26
HCA: Future Returns Will Depend On AI Efficiency And Capital Returns
The updated analyst price target for HCA Healthcare edges higher to an implied fair value of about $542, as analysts factor in the potential for AI driven efficiency gains to support a slightly richer P/E multiple while keeping core growth and margin assumptions essentially unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare has tilted more constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting their price targets and framing AI driven efficiency as a potential support for a higher valuation multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 11
HCA: Future Returns Will Hinge On Policy Outcomes And Capital Returns
HCA Healthcare's analyst price target has been lifted by about $42, as analysts factor in slightly higher assumed profit margins, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and updated Street research that points to refined expectations for growth, returns, and risk. Analyst Commentary Street research on HCA Healthcare has been active, with several firms revisiting their models and lifting price targets after recent updates.Narrative Update • Jan 26
HCA: Future Returns Will Depend On Q3 Upside And Policy Stability
Analysts have nudged their implied fair value for HCA Healthcare slightly higher to about $488.76 from $485.85, reflecting a series of recent price target increases based on updated EBITDA estimates, a modestly adjusted long term P/E assumption, and views on future government managed care trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mix of confidence and caution around HCA Healthcare, with price targets generally adjusted higher while risks around government programs and the hospital backdrop remain front of mind.Narrative Update • Jan 10
HCA: Future Returns Will Rely On Supplemental Payments And Policy Stability
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for HCA Healthcare higher to $485.85 from $481.95, reflecting refreshed price targets that lean on recent Q3 strength, higher expected margins and supplemental payment support, while still flagging legislative and reimbursement risks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HCA Healthcare shows a clear tilt toward higher valuation frameworks after Q3, with most firms raising price targets and linking their moves to margin strength, supplemental payment support and updated longer term assumptions.Analysis Article • Jan 02
Investors Continue Waiting On Sidelines For HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA)
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HCA ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.8x might make it look like a buy right now...Narrative Update • Dec 26
HCA: Future Returns Will Depend On Supplemental Payments And Policy Stability
HCA Healthcare's analyst fair value estimate has been nudged higher from $477.70 to $481.95 as analysts factor in modestly stronger EBITDA following a solid Q3 beat and sustained support from supplemental payments, while applying slightly higher forward multiples despite lingering legislative uncertainties. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a broadly constructive stance on HCA Healthcare, with multiple firms lifting price targets following stronger than expected Q3 performance, higher EBITDA trajectories, and increased confidence in state and federal payment support.Narrative Update • Dec 11
HCA: Future Returns Will Hinge On Supplemental Payments Amid Policy Uncertainty
Analysts modestly raised their price targets on HCA Healthcare by roughly $15 to $25 per share across the Street, citing stronger than expected Q3 EBITDA performance, sustained support from state-directed and supplemental payments, and improved visibility into 2025 to 2027 earnings despite policy uncertainty around health insurance exchange subsidies. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts view the recent round of price target increases as confirmation that HCA's Q3 beat reflects durable earnings power rather than one off upside, with revised models now extending through 2027 and embedding higher baseline EBITDA.Narrative Update • Nov 27
HCA: Performance Will Depend On Supplemental Payments Amid Policy And Utilization Risks
HCA Healthcare's fair value estimate was raised slightly to $477.70 per share as analysts point to incremental improvements in earnings outlook and the positive impact from recent supplemental payment approvals. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reveals a range of perspectives from analysts following HCA Healthcare’s latest quarterly results and supplemental payment developments.Narrative Update • Nov 12
HCA: Future Performance Will Depend on Supplemental Payment Tailwinds Amid Policy Risks
HCA Healthcare's analyst price target has increased from $471 to approximately $477 per share. Analysts cite strong third-quarter results, sustained supplemental payment tailwinds, and an improved profit margin outlook as key factors behind their more optimistic forecasts.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Supplemental Payments And Policy Risks Will Shape Future Performance And Value
HCA Healthcare's fair value estimate has been raised from $417.52 to $471.00. Analysts cite strong quarterly performance, improved profit margins, and the positive impact of supplemental payment approvals as key drivers for the upward revision.Narrative Update • Oct 14
Expanding Healthcare Services And Capital Allocation Will Yield Value
Analysts have raised their average price target for HCA Healthcare by nearly $14 to $417.52. They cite updates for state payments, solid sector fundamentals, and continued margin resilience despite potential challenges from policy and reimbursement pressures.Narrative Update • Sep 21
Expanding Healthcare Services And Capital Allocation Will Yield Value
HCA Healthcare’s consensus price target has risen as analysts factor in positive impacts from newly approved Texas payments and strong margins despite softening volumes, reflecting management’s resilience in adapting to policy challenges, with fair value increasing from $398.57 to $403.81. Analyst Commentary Incorporation of preliminary estimates for newly approved state-directed payments in Texas driving upward revisions in price targets.Narrative Update • Sep 06
Expanding Healthcare Services And Capital Allocation Will Yield Value
Analysts raised their price target for HCA Healthcare slightly to $398.57, citing sustained margin strength and operational resilience despite sector policy concerns, with HCA expected to outperform peers due to its scale and proactive mitigation efforts. Analyst Commentary HCA’s Q2 results showed margin outperformance despite softer volumes, but analysts caution about future margin pressures from compensation ratios and potential policy-related increases in bad debt.Seeking Alpha • Apr 22
Despite Regulatory Uncertainties, HCA Healthcare Looks Healthy
Summary I believe HCA Healthcare stock is currently undervalued, especially after a recent 20.9% share price drop, making it a compelling 'buy' candidate. HCA Healthcare's financial performance has been solid, with revenue rising 5.7% year-over-year, driven by increased hospital traffic and higher revenue per admission. Despite mixed profitability metrics, management's forecast for 2025 shows expected revenue growth and higher profits, reinforcing my bullish stance. Regulatory risks, particularly concerning Medicaid, exist but seem unlikely to materialize significantly, making HCA a solid investment with a history of stock buybacks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 24
HCA Healthcare Q4 Earnings Recap: Overreaction To One-Time Event
Summary HCA Healthcare, Inc. released Q4 and Full-Year FY 2024 earnings on Friday, January 24th beating consensus for both EPS and Revenue. Along with a strong core business, industry tailwinds are accelerating, driving greater revenue potential and mitigating cost-growth. At a DCF-generated price target of $437, 41% upside from today's pricing, I raise my rating from buy to strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| HCA | US Healthcare | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 3.2% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 1Y | 12.2% | 38.5% | 14.7% |
Return vs Industry: HCA underperformed the US Healthcare industry which returned 38.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HCA underperformed the US Market which returned 14.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| HCA volatility | |
|---|---|
| HCA Average Weekly Movement | 4.7% |
| Healthcare Industry Average Movement | 7.2% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.0% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: HCA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: HCA's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1968 | 275,000 | Sam Hazen | www.hcahealthcare.com |
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| HCA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$84.78b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$6.84b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$78.01b |
12.4x
P/E Ratio1.1x
P/S RatioIs HCA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| HCA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$78.01b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$44.80b |
| Gross Profit | US$33.22b |
| Other Expenses | US$26.38b |
| Earnings | US$6.84b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 30.83 |
| Gross Margin | 42.58% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.77% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -1,549.3% |
How did HCA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.8%
Current Dividend Yield10%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/27 04:32 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/24 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jasper Hellweg | Argus Research Company |
| Hua Ha | Baird |
| Andrew Mok | Barclays |