Vodacom Group's (JSE:VOD) Dividend Will Be ZAR2.85

The board of Vodacom Group Limited (JSE:VOD) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 2nd of December, with investors receiving ZAR2.85 per share. However, the dividend yield of 5.7% is still a decent boost to shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Vodacom Group

Vodacom Group's Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Before this announcement, Vodacom Group was paying out 75% of earnings, but a comparatively small 45% of free cash flows. In general, cash flows are more important than earnings, so we are comfortable that the dividend will be sustainable going forward, especially with so much cash left over for reinvestment.

The next year is set to see EPS grow by 47.9%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 50%, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ZAR8.25 in 2014, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ZAR5.90. This works out to be a decline of approximately 3.3% per year over that time. Generally, we don't like to see a dividend that has been declining over time as this can degrade shareholders' returns and indicate that the company may be running into problems.

The Dividend's Growth Prospects Are Limited

Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Over the past five years, it looks as though Vodacom Group's EPS has declined at around 4.3% a year. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed. Earnings are predicted to grow over the next year, but we would remain cautious until a track record of earnings growth is established.

In Summary

Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. In the past, the payments have been unstable, but over the short term the dividend could be reliable, with the company generating enough cash to cover it. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Taking the debate a bit further, we've identified 2 warning signs for Vodacom Group that investors need to be conscious of moving forward. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.