Those who invested in PPL (NYSE:PPL) a year ago are up 35%

We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But not every stock you buy will perform as well as the overall market. For example, the PPL Corporation (NYSE:PPL), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 30% trails the market return. The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 14% higher than it was three years ago.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for PPL

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

PPL was able to grow EPS by 17% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly lower than the 30% increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

It is of course excellent to see how PPL has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling PPL stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of PPL, it has a TSR of 35% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

PPL's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 35%. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 5% per year. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with PPL (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.