Ameren Corporation Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

As you might know, Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Ameren reported an earnings miss, with US$1.8b revenues falling 17% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.98 also coming in slightly below expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ameren

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ameren from eight analysts is for revenues of US$7.84b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.0% to US$4.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.62 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at US$76.82even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ameren, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$83.00 and the most bearish at US$69.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ameren is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ameren's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ameren to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Ameren's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ameren going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ameren has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.