Why American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) Could Be Worth Watching

While American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGS over the last few months, increasing to US$15.68 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$12.93. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether American Airlines Group's current trading price of US$13.90 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at American Airlines Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for American Airlines Group

Is American Airlines Group Still Cheap?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to our price multiple model, where we compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. We’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 11.07x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 10.26x, which means if you buy American Airlines Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that American Airlines Group should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since American Airlines Group’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of American Airlines Group look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for American Airlines Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in AAL’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at AAL? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on AAL, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for AAL, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you want to dive deeper into American Airlines Group, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, American Airlines Group has 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in American Airlines Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.