nLIGHT (LASR) Is Down 5.6% After Q3 Revenue Beat and Defense Boost - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• nLIGHT, Inc. recently reported its third-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a year-on-year revenue increase to US$66.74 million and a reduction in net loss compared to the prior year, alongside issuing strong fourth-quarter guidance with revenue projected between US$72 million and US$78 million.
• Management attributed record performance to strength in the aerospace and defense segment, with the company forecasting significant year-on-year sales growth in the upcoming quarter.
• We'll explore how nLIGHT’s upbeat revenue guidance and narrowing losses could influence its investment narrative, particularly in the defense market.

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nLIGHT Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in nLIGHT, you need conviction in the company’s ability to capture sustained growth from surging aerospace and defense demand, while carefully balancing the risks of heavy exposure to U.S. government budgets. The recent Q3 results and robust Q4 revenue guidance reinforce the view that defense remains the most important short-term catalyst, though this same concentration continues to be the biggest risk, these financial updates do not materially alter this balance.

Among recent announcements, the Q4 2025 earnings guidance projecting US$72 million to US$78 million in revenue stands out. This guidance is highly relevant as it signals management’s heightened confidence in near-term defense demand, which could support continued momentum for nLIGHT’s growth catalysts through the next quarter.

Yet, in contrast, there remains the risk that if defense spending priorities shift or large programs are delayed, investors should be aware that ...

Read the full narrative on nLIGHT (it's free!)

nLIGHT's narrative projects $310.5 million revenue and $28.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 12.7% yearly revenue growth and a $75.1 million earnings increase from the current earnings of -$47.0 million.

Uncover how nLIGHT's forecasts yield a $28.08 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimate fair values for nLIGHT between US$22.83 and US$28.08, based on 2 perspectives. Despite these varied projections, the company’s rising reliance on government defense revenue invites deeper thought about future earnings stability and growth potential.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on nLIGHT - why the stock might be worth as much as $28.08!

Build Your Own nLIGHT Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your nLIGHT research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free nLIGHT research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate nLIGHT's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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