Should You Investigate Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) At US$113?

Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The recent share price gains has brought the company back closer to its yearly peak. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Guidewire Software’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Guidewire Software

What's The Opportunity In Guidewire Software?

According to our valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 32%, trading at US$113 compared to our intrinsic value of $85.78. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Guidewire Software’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

Can we expect growth from Guidewire Software?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. In the upcoming year, Guidewire Software's earnings are expected to increase by 81%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in GWRE’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe GWRE should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GWRE for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for GWRE, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Guidewire Software at this point in time. For example - Guidewire Software has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Guidewire Software, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.