Microsoft Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 6/6
Microsoft has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 14.2%, while the Software industry saw earnings growing at 30.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 12.8% per year. Microsoft's return on equity is 30.2%, and it has net margins of 40.3%.
Key information
14.17%
Earnings growth rate
14.44%
EPS growth rate
| Software Industry Growth | 17.33% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.85% |
| Return on equity | 30.23% |
| Net Margin | 40.31% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Jun 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 18
Microsoft Stock Hit My Target. Now I'm Stepping Back (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Microsoft delivered a robust Q4, with $90B sales and $4.74 EPS, surpassing expectations and driving a 28% stock rally to near $500. Azure's 43% growth and Copilot's 30M paid seats highlight strong demand, with capacity constraints—not demand—limiting further upside. CapEx surged to $41B, cloud gross margins dipped, but free cash flow outperformed, reflecting operational strength despite heavy AI infrastructure investment. I now rate MSFT Hold; valuation is less compelling after the rally, and further upside hinges on sustained earnings revisions and flawless execution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 04
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Azure Demand Will Support Future Leadership
Analysts are nudging fair value for Microsoft higher to $572.92, reflecting richer AI driven revenue assumptions tied to Azure and M365 Copilot adoption, while tempering profit margins and using a lower future P/E in line with the recent wave of higher Street price targets that cluster in the $510 to $700 range. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Microsoft highlights a clear divide between bullish analysts who see AI as a long runway for growth and those who are more cautious about margins, capital intensity, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Sep 03
Has the business thesis improved?
Microsoft’s AI thesis is working—but cash returns must justify a ~27.5× FY2029 P/E Microsoft’s FY2026 results strengthened my long-term company thesis. Revenue reached $331.8 billion, the operating margin was 46.8%, Azure surpassed $100 billion of annual revenue on the newly restated basis, Microsoft 365 Copilot exceeded 30 million paid seats, and commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion.New Narrative • Sep 03
Microsoft: Quality Compounder Buying the AI Backbone
I'm buying Microsoft as a long-term core holding (10–15+ years) because it is, in my view, the best-positioned incumbent to convert the AI cycle into durable, recurring cash flow. This isn't a bet on a single product — it's a bet on an ecosystem: Azure as the cloud backbone, Microsoft 365 + Copilot embedding AI into the daily workflow of hundreds of millions of enterprise users, GitHub, Dynamics, security, and the OpenAI relationship.
Narrative Update • Aug 19
MSFT: AI Infrastructure And Custom Chips Will Sustain Premium Earnings Multiples
Microsoft's updated analyst price target framework reflects a higher fair value estimate of $717.92, with analysts pointing to the company's AI driven Azure and M365 Commercial Cloud growth, stronger profit margin assumptions, and a lower projected future P/E multiple as key supports for the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a broadly constructive tone around Microsoft, with many bullish analysts updating price targets and reiterating confidence in the company’s AI centric cloud strategy.New Narrative • Aug 05
Earnings Grew 22%, Not 31%, And The Difference Is OpenAI Accounting
Correct the growth rate first. GAAP net income rose 31%.
Narrative Update • Aug 05
MSFT: AI Data Center Capex Will Pressure Margins And Cash Flows
Microsoft's updated fair value estimate has moved up by around $9 to $422.83 per share as analysts factor in higher expected profit margins and sustained AI driven demand for Azure and Copilot, reflected in a series of recent price target revisions that often sit in the $500 to $650 range. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Microsoft highlights a clear split between bullish long term AI optimism and more cautious voices that are focused on valuation, capital intensity, and execution around Azure and Copilot.Analysis Article • Aug 01
Earnings Update: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Microsoft Corporation 's...
Narrative Update • Aug 01
Microsoft Made $26.7 Billion More and Brought Home Less Cash. The Stock Jumped 15% in a Single Day.
Best year in the company's history. Record margins.
Narrative Update • Aug 01
10-K Update
Updated with the most recent annual report.
Narrative Update • Jul 31
Microsoft (MSFT): The Toll Road Just Sent Its First Real Invoice
The Quarter That Answered the Question I Left Open Two weeks ago I closed this narrative with a question I genuinely couldn't answer: when does a $190 billion capex number stop looking like vertigo and start looking like foresight? I said nobody knew, and that not knowing was what made this a real bet rather than an obvious one.Narrative Update • Jul 22
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Spending Will Support Premium Multiples Over Longer Horizon
Microsoft's analyst price targets have edged lower, with several firms trimming objectives by amounts such as $25 to $115, while still pointing to Azure, Copilot, AI driven demand and tighter cost control as key supports for the long term thesis and for updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Microsoft continues to center on how its AI and cloud spending filters through to growth, profitability and valuation.
New Narrative • Jul 19
Is Microsoft on sale? and Its Case in the AI Race
(This story appeared on my substack page around a week ago: https://open.substack.com/pub/piproberts25/p/is-microsoft-on-sale-and-its-case?r=6kjdcg&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ) Last October, Microsoft was trading at around US$540 per share. Today it trades closer to US$385.New Narrative • Jul 13
Microsoft (MSFT): The AI Bull Case Everyone Sees, Trading at a Multiple Nobody's Willing to Pay
What Microsoft Actually Does (And Why the Bear Case Misreads It) Most retail investors think of Microsoft as "the Windows and Office company that also does AI now." That framing is about eight years out of date. Microsoft today is a three-headed compounding machine — enterprise productivity software, cloud infrastructure, and, increasingly, the metering layer for the entire AI economy — and the third head is growing fast enough to change how the other two should be valued.
New Narrative • Jul 06
Microsoft Are Industry Leaders at a Heavy Discount
Microsoft's decline in value over the last year is not surprising, but whether or not it was deserved is another thing entirely. Similar to their peers, a lot of money has been spent developing their AI infrastructure.New Narrative • Jul 04
A wonderful business at reasonable price.
Microsoft rarely goes on sale, so it's worth paying attention when the multiple compresses. At around $380, the stock trades at roughly 22–23x trailing earnings and ~14x EV/EBITDA, well below its own seven year historical range.Narrative Update • Jun 30
MSFT: AI Infrastructure And OpenAI Stake Will Drive Future Upside
Microsoft's updated analyst narrative reflects a lower implied fair value of about $413 per share, compared with roughly $438 previously, as analysts trim long term gross margin assumptions and future P/E expectations while still recognizing higher modeled revenue growth and profitability tied to the company's AI positioning and recent research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Microsoft highlights a split view, with some firms still constructive on the company's AI roadmap while a separate group of bearish analysts has been trimming price targets and reassessing long term assumptions.Analysis Article • Jun 19
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Could Be 18.6% Undervalued After China AI Push and Copilot Reset
Microsoft (MSFT) is back in focus after two linked moves: rapid expansion of its Azure hosted OpenAI services in China and a reset of Copilot Cowork pricing and underlying AI models. See our latest analysis for Microsoft. Despite a long list of AI partnerships and new products like Copilot Cowork, Microsoft’s recent share price performance has been weak, with the stock down 19.8% year to date on a share price basis and total shareholder return declining 20.4% over the past year. However,...Narrative Update • Jun 16
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Commercial Backlog Will Drive Future Leadership
Analysts have nudged the Microsoft price target higher by $0.50 to reflect slightly adjusted assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, supported by recent research that highlights Microsoft's positioning in AI software and its progress on capacity, models and Copilot. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft shows an active debate around how much AI should influence valuation, with both supportive and cautious voices adjusting their targets and views.Analysis Article • Jun 12
Software stocks just gave investors a masterclass
Software stocks crashed on fears AI would make them obsolete, then they came roaring back. This edition of Market Insights aims to hand investors a repeatable playbook for separating real risk from market panic.Analysis Article • Jun 12
Software stocks just gave investors a masterclass
Software stocks crashed on fears AI would make them obsolete, then they came roaring back. This edition of Market Insights aims to hand investors a repeatable playbook for separating real risk from market panic.Narrative Update • Jun 01
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Cloud Backlog Will Support Long-Term Leadership
Narrative Update on Microsoft Microsoft's analyst price target framework has been refined with a slightly lower fair value of about $560.89. This reflects analyst views that stronger revenue growth tied to AI initiatives is being balanced by modestly lower margin expectations and a slightly higher required return.
New Narrative • May 21
Microsoft no es una apuesta. Es una franquicia global de la que se puede ser socio durante décadas.
Copilot me ha creado un investment memo ampliado al estilo Warren Buffett , usando exclusivamente datos verificables de Investor Relations de Microsoft (earnings, 10‑Q, reports) y manteniendo un tono sobrio, basado en principios de inversión a largo plazo. Investment Memo – Microsoft (MSFT) (Estilo Buffett: negocio, moat, retorno sobre capital, disciplina de precio) 1.Narrative Update • May 11
Microsoft's enterprise cash-flow durability stays unmatched despite near-term margin pressures
Microsoft’s long‑term economic value remains grounded in the same core reality: the company’s enterprise cash‑flow durability continues to be unmatched. High‑retention subscription economics, entrenched operating‑system and productivity moats, and the scale advantages of Azure still anchor Microsoft’s intrinsic worth far more than any short‑term growth narrative.New Narrative • May 10
Microsoft will achieve a future PE ratio of 24.626979x by leveraging strong growth
Valuation In 3–5 years, I think Microsoft becomes even more dominant in enterprise AI, cloud infrastructure, and productivity software. Azure and Copilot are probably the biggest growth drivers, while Windows, Office, LinkedIn, GitHub, and gaming remain huge cash generators.Analysis Article • May 02
Microsoft Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Last week, you might have seen that Microsoft Corporation ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) released its third-quarter result to the...Narrative Update • May 02
Microsoft Just Had a Quarter for the History Books. I Still Haven't Bought a Share.
In late March I told you the fundamentals were a fortress and the price had not caught up to the fear yet. The fear faded.Narrative Update • May 02
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency And Global Data Center Expansion Will Drive Leadership
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Microsoft, reflecting a lower assumed fair value of around $562 and a reduced future P/E of roughly 28x. This comes even as they continue to reference solid revenue growth assumptions and mixed reactions to recent OpenAI and AI infrastructure updates across the latest research reports.New Narrative • Apr 30
AI Infrastructure And Enterprise Agents Will Reshape Long Term Earnings Power
Catalysts About Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology company that offers cloud services, productivity software, AI platforms, business applications, security products and consumer services. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Apr 18
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency And Heavy Data Center Commitments Will Sustain Leadership
Microsoft's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly lower to $579.57, as analysts factor in updated price targets that reflect a mix of reduced P/E assumptions, along with expectations for revenue growth and profit margins tied to AI and cloud spending. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Microsoft reflects a mix of optimism and caution as analysts recalibrate price targets and ratings around AI, cloud spending, and capital intensity.New Narrative • Apr 16
AI Infrastructure Constraints Will Pressure Cloud Margins Yet Support Stable Long Term Earnings
Catalysts About Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology company that provides cloud services, productivity software, AI platforms and related hardware and services to enterprise, government and consumer customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?New Narrative • Apr 13
Microsoft Could Reach $600 Over the Next Five Years
Microsoft has a strong path to $600 over the next five years because it combines durable growth, elite profitability, and a leadership position in AI, cloud, and enterprise software. Its recurring revenue base makes earnings more predictable, while Azure, Microsoft 365, and its AI products give it multiple ways to compound value over time.Narrative Update • Apr 03
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Leadership
Microsoft's analyst price target has been modestly trimmed as the fair value estimate shifts from $594.62 to $587.31, reflecting a round of target reductions and mixed views on AI related risks and opportunities, even as several firms maintain positive long term opinions on the company's role in software and infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around Microsoft shows a split view, with many research houses trimming price targets while still seeing long term potential, and a smaller group turning more cautious on AI related execution risks, valuation, and competitive threats.New Narrative • Mar 29
Everyone's Terrified Microsoft Will Keep Spending. I'm Terrified They'll Stop.
Microsoft just burned $37.5 billion in 90 days. The stock has lost a third of its value.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Microsoft makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 331,839 | 133,749 | 34,666 | 35,562 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 318,273 | 125,216 | 34,059 | 34,394 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 305,453 | 119,262 | 33,263 | 33,677 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 293,812 | 104,912 | 33,010 | 33,090 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 281,724 | 101,832 | 32,877 | 32,488 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 270,010 | 96,635 | 32,664 | 31,715 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 261,802 | 92,750 | 32,834 | 31,170 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 254,190 | 90,512 | 32,794 | 30,395 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 245,122 | 88,136 | 32,065 | 29,510 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 236,584 | 86,181 | 31,404 | 28,193 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 227,583 | 82,541 | 30,678 | 27,524 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 218,310 | 77,096 | 30,471 | 27,226 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 211,915 | 72,361 | 30,334 | 27,195 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 207,591 | 69,020 | 29,986 | 27,305 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 204,094 | 67,449 | 29,668 | 26,627 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 203,075 | 69,789 | 28,415 | 25,541 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 198,270 | 72,738 | 27,725 | 24,512 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 192,557 | 72,456 | 27,051 | 23,350 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 184,903 | 71,185 | 26,385 | 22,248 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 176,251 | 67,883 | 25,708 | 21,389 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 168,088 | 61,271 | 25,224 | 20,716 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 159,969 | 56,015 | 24,732 | 20,243 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 153,284 | 51,310 | 24,507 | 19,926 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 147,114 | 47,496 | 24,475 | 19,630 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 143,015 | 44,281 | 24,709 | 19,269 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 138,699 | 46,266 | 24,023 | 18,568 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 134,249 | 44,323 | 23,583 | 17,997 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 129,814 | 41,094 | 23,249 | 17,464 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 125,843 | 39,240 | 23,098 | 16,876 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 122,211 | 34,926 | 22,742 | 16,296 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 118,459 | 33,541 | 22,541 | 15,695 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 114,906 | 18,819 | 22,492 | 15,129 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 110,360 | 16,571 | 22,223 | 14,726 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 105,880 | 15,767 | 20,704 | 13,562 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 102,273 | 13,829 | 20,235 | 13,202 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 99,181 | 26,398 | 19,522 | 12,760 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 96,571 | 25,489 | 19,942 | 13,037 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 91,580 | 20,542 | 19,594 | 12,669 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 88,899 | 18,812 | 19,066 | 12,294 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 86,869 | 17,563 | 19,106 | 12,132 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 91,154 | 20,539 | 19,198 | 11,988 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 86,886 | 10,481 | 19,194 | 11,936 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 88,084 | 11,710 | 19,448 | 11,940 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 90,758 | 12,555 | 19,862 | 11,943 |
Quality Earnings: MSFT has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MSFT's current net profit margins (40.3%) are higher than last year (36.1%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MSFT's earnings have grown by 14.2% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MSFT's earnings growth over the past year (31.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (14.2% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: MSFT earnings growth over the past year (31.3%) exceeded the Software industry 27.2%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: MSFT's Return on Equity (30.2%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/21 03:55 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Microsoft Corporation is covered by 85 analysts. 51 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Kadambari Daptardar | Accountability Research Corporation |
| Adam Shepherd | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Joseph Bonner | Argus Research Company |