Microsoft Corporation

NasdaqGS:MSFT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.2t

Microsoft Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Microsoft is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.1% and 13.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 25.5% in 3 years.

Key information

13.1%

Earnings growth rate

13.22%

EPS growth rate

Software earnings growth18.6%
Revenue growth rate13.6%
Future return on equity25.47%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated29 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Microsoft: The Best AI Bet Post Earnings

Apr 30

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency And Heavy Data Center Commitments Will Sustain Leadership

Microsoft's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly lower to $579.57, as analysts factor in updated price targets that reflect a mix of reduced P/E assumptions, along with expectations for revenue growth and profit margins tied to AI and cloud spending. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Microsoft reflects a mix of optimism and caution as analysts recalibrate price targets and ratings around AI, cloud spending, and capital intensity.

AI Infrastructure Constraints Will Pressure Cloud Margins Yet Support Stable Long Term Earnings

Catalysts About Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology company that provides cloud services, productivity software, AI platforms and related hardware and services to enterprise, government and consumer customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Microsoft Could Reach $600 Over the Next Five Years

Microsoft has a strong path to $600 over the next five years because it combines durable growth, elite profitability, and a leadership position in AI, cloud, and enterprise software. Its recurring revenue base makes earnings more predictable, while Azure, Microsoft 365, and its AI products give it multiple ways to compound value over time.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Leadership

Microsoft's analyst price target has been modestly trimmed as the fair value estimate shifts from $594.62 to $587.31, reflecting a round of target reductions and mixed views on AI related risks and opportunities, even as several firms maintain positive long term opinions on the company's role in software and infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around Microsoft shows a split view, with many research houses trimming price targets while still seeing long term potential, and a smaller group turning more cautious on AI related execution risks, valuation, and competitive threats.

Everyone's Terrified Microsoft Will Keep Spending. I'm Terrified They'll Stop.

Microsoft just burned $37.5 billion in 90 days. The stock has lost a third of its value.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Leadership

Analysts have made a small cut to the Microsoft analyst price target, trimming fair value by about $1 to $594.62 as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate, modest tweaks to long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a marginally lower future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft presents a mixed but detailed picture, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they recalibrate expectations around AI, capital spending, and long term growth assumptions.

A Structured Counter‑Analysis of "The Leaking Dreadnought"

A Structured Counter‑Analysis of "The Leaking Dreadnought" Microsoft is not a leaking vessel drifting toward structural decline; it is a company in the middle of a capital‑intensive platform transition whose long‑term logic the article fundamentally misreads. The critique below addresses the article’s core claims and reframes them through the lens of Microsoft’s actual strategic architecture, economic model, and competitive position.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Cloud Leadership

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Microsoft has been trimmed by a modest amount in dollar terms. Analysts are factoring in slightly lower revenue growth, a small step down in profit margin assumptions, a marginally higher discount rate, and a slightly richer future P/E multiple.

Microsoft: Real‑Terms Economic Value Anchored in Durability, Not Growth Assumptions

Microsoft’s true economic value rests on its unmatched enterprise cash-flow durability, high-retention subscription model, and deep competitive moats in operating systems, productivity platforms, and cloud infrastructure. These produce stable, high-margin recurring cash flows capable of long-duration compounding under disciplined capital allocation.

MSFT: AI Self Sufficiency And Global Data Center Expansion Will Sustain Cloud Leadership

Our analyst price target for Microsoft has been nudged lower by a few dollars to reflect a slightly reduced fair value estimate of about $596, as analysts balance ongoing enthusiasm around AI driven capital spending with a wave of recent target trims. These largely stem from valuation discipline and concerns that prior long term assumptions, including P/E and margin expectations, may have been set too high.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Partnerships And Data Center Expansion Will Sustain Cloud Leadership

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Microsoft by about $19 to $603, citing a blend of slightly higher discount rates, modestly stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple that reflects the recent wave of price target resets and still constructive, AI driven, long term views across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Microsoft centers on how to value its AI opportunity, the required capital spending, and whether current expectations are too high or still leave room for upside.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And OpenAI Partnership Will Sustain Cloud Leadership

Microsoft's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower, with fair value now at about $622.19, as analysts balance modest tweaks to the discount rate and P/E assumptions against ongoing AI related demand signals highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Microsoft clusters into two broad camps, with most commentary still constructive on AI driven growth and cloud execution, while a smaller group is more cautious on capital intensity and hyperscaler economics.

Microsoft (MSFT): When AI Becomes the Operating Layer of Work

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is no longer just a software company—it’s becoming the operating layer for modern work. Windows, Office, Azure, and now AI-powered copilots form an interconnected ecosystem that spans individual users, enterprises, and governments.

MSFT: AI Infrastructure Expansion And OpenAI Deal Will Support Durable Cloud Leadership

Our Microsoft price target edges down slightly to US$622.51 from US$624.45, as analysts balance ongoing enthusiasm around the company’s broad AI and cloud positioning with more cautious views on capital intensity and earnings expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft reflects a mix of optimism around the company’s AI and cloud positioning and a more cautious read on capital intensity and earnings risk.

MSFT: Expanded AI Partnerships And Infrastructure Will Drive Durable Cloud Leadership

Analysts have nudged their Microsoft price target slightly higher to approximately $650, reflecting confidence that the company's broadened AI partnerships, resilient Azure growth, and durable margin profile justify modestly stronger long term revenue and earnings assumptions despite rising capex and hyperscaler caution. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Microsoft, with a cluster of recent notes highlighting the company as a primary beneficiary of accelerating AI adoption, robust cloud demand, and deepened model partnerships, even as a minority of voices urge greater caution around hyperscaler capital intensity and returns.

The Leaking Dreadnought

On the surface, Microsoft appears to be an unsinkable vessel. Buoyed by a trillion-dollar market cap and the explosive valuation of the AI sector, the company seems to be steaming ahead.

MSFT: Expanding AI Data Center Buildout Will Drive Durable Cloud And Platform Leadership

Our Microsoft analyst price target has been raised slightly to about $625 from roughly $625. This reflects analysts' view that durable double digit cloud and AI driven revenue growth, reinforced by expanded OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships and recent Q1 beats, more than offsets concerns about elevated capex and hyperscaler returns.

Shareholders Will Probably Hold Off On Increasing Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ:MSFT) CEO Compensation For The Time Being

Nov 28
Shareholders Will Probably Hold Off On Increasing Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ:MSFT) CEO Compensation For The Time Being

MSFT: Expanding AI Data Center Investments Will Drive Leadership In Next-Generation Cloud Services

Microsoft's analyst price target saw a modest decrease of approximately $2 to $624.83. Some analysts cite rising capital requirements and more cautious expectations for hyperscale cloud providers, despite continued confidence in the company's long-term AI and cloud positioning.

MSFT: Future Cloud Demand Will Drive Expansion In AI Infrastructure And Partnerships

Analysts have increased their price target for Microsoft by $5.62 to $626.65. They cite continued momentum in cloud growth, strengthened profit margins, and improving revenue growth expectations driven by Azure’s performance and expanded partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Analyst Commentary Highlights Microsoft AI Momentum and Upward Valuation Amid Growth and Competitive Risks

Microsoft’s analyst price target has been revised upward to $625 from $582, a $43 increase. Analysts point to ongoing AI strength, Azure momentum, and durable software growth as key drivers for the valuation boost.

AI And Cloud Services Will Shape Enterprise Future

Microsoft’s analyst price target has been raised from approximately $614 to $621. This reflects increased confidence among analysts in Azure’s accelerating growth, the company's robust positioning in the AI ecosystem, and recent capacity and customer mix enhancements.

After the AI Party: A Sobering Look at Microsoft's Future

The world has been captivated by the artificial intelligence boom, and no company has ridden the wave of investor enthusiasm quite like Microsoft. Buoyed by its strategic partnership with OpenAI and the integration of AI across its product ecosystem, the company's valuation has soared to unprecedented heights.
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From Legacy to Cloud: A Valuation of Microsoft’s Evolving Business Model

United States: 50.87%1-Year Revenue Growth = 16.83%
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Microsoft Will Lead the Charge with a 12% Revenue Growth Ahead

Where do you think revenue will be in 5 years time? and why?📊 Where Could MSFT’s Revenue Be in 5 Years?As of FY2023, Microsoft's revenue was $232 billion, with an average 5-year CAGR (Compound Annual

Weekly Picks: 🛢️ WCP's Global Leverage, MSFT's AI Momentum, and CDPR's Upside Potential

Jun 03
Weekly Picks: 🛢️ WCP's Global Leverage, MSFT's AI Momentum, and CDPR's Upside Potential
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Microsoft's Evolution Will Drive Revenue to New Heights Fueled by AI

Exceptionally well-positionedMicrosoft is exceptionally well-positioned to lead the enterprise software and cloud landscape in the age of artificial intelligence. With Azure (cloud infrastructure), Mi

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:MSFT - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/2028441,072166,97792,675237,31833
6/30/2027378,978141,60775,780203,06853
6/30/2026327,953127,52970,066171,44451
12/31/2025305,453119,26277,412160,506N/A
9/30/2025293,812104,91278,017147,039N/A
6/30/2025281,724101,83271,611136,162N/A
3/31/2025270,01096,63569,365130,710N/A
12/31/2024261,80292,75070,031125,583N/A
9/30/2024254,19090,51272,662122,145N/A
6/30/2024245,12288,13674,071118,548N/A
3/31/2024236,58486,18170,576110,123N/A
12/31/2023227,58382,54167,445102,647N/A
9/30/2023218,31077,09663,22694,967N/A
6/30/2023211,91572,36159,47587,582N/A
3/31/2023207,59169,02057,40683,441N/A
12/31/2022204,09467,44959,61884,386N/A
9/30/2022203,07569,78963,33487,693N/A
6/30/2022198,27072,73865,14989,035N/A
3/31/2022192,55772,45663,64987,116N/A
12/31/2021184,90371,18560,69383,909N/A
9/30/2021176,25167,88360,42081,945N/A
6/30/2021168,08861,27156,11876,740N/A
3/31/2021159,96956,01553,78972,703N/A
12/31/2020153,28451,31050,43668,028N/A
9/30/2020147,11447,49649,22966,192N/A
6/30/2020143,01544,28145,23460,675N/A
3/31/2020138,69946,26643,36258,110N/A
12/31/2019134,24944,32340,58054,126N/A
9/30/2019129,81441,094N/A52,346N/A
6/30/2019125,84339,240N/A52,185N/A
3/31/2019122,21134,926N/A47,495N/A
12/31/2018118,45933,541N/A46,126N/A
9/30/2018114,90618,819N/A45,101N/A
6/30/2018110,36016,571N/A43,884N/A
3/31/2018105,88015,767N/A43,471N/A
12/31/2017102,27313,829N/A41,980N/A
9/30/201799,18126,398N/A40,398N/A
6/30/201796,57125,489N/A39,507N/A
3/31/201791,58020,542N/A36,966N/A
12/31/201688,89918,812N/A36,673N/A
9/30/201686,86917,563N/A35,998N/A
6/30/201691,15420,539N/A33,325N/A
3/31/201686,88610,481N/A31,710N/A
12/31/201588,08411,710N/A31,468N/A
9/30/201590,75812,555N/A30,190N/A
6/30/201593,58012,193N/A29,668N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSFT's forecast earnings growth (13.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: MSFT's earnings (13.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MSFT's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MSFT's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSFT's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSFT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/30 14:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Microsoft Corporation is covered by 98 analysts. 53 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kadambari DaptardarAccountability Research Corporation
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Adam ShepherdArete Research Services LLP