SkyWater Technology, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that SkyWater Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:SKYT) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.3% to US$8.99 in the past week. Although revenues of US$94m were in line with analyst expectations, SkyWater Technology surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected (statutory) profit of US$0.03 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analystsforecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for SkyWater Technology

Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering SkyWater Technology provided consensus estimates of US$328.6m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 5.0% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 97% to US$0.01. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$378.1m and losses of US$0.17 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

The consensus price target rose 6.0% to US$12.30, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in revenue. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on SkyWater Technology, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$8.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 19% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SkyWater Technology is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SkyWater Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple SkyWater Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of SkyWater Technology's balance sheet, and whether we think SkyWater Technology is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.