What Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) P/E Is Not Telling You

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.5x Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Valvoline has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Valvoline

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Valvoline's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 34% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 52% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 5.0% during the coming year according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Valvoline is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Valvoline's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Valvoline that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.