Stock Analysis
- United States
- /
- Specialty Stores
- /
- NYSE:DKS
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE:DKS)
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, DICK'S Sporting Goods fair value estimate is US$219
- With US$225 share price, DICK'S Sporting Goods appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- The US$239 analyst price target for DKS is 9.3% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE:DKS) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for DICK'S Sporting Goods
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$477.9m | US$837.8m | US$986.9m | US$871.8m | US$941.5m | US$963.1m | US$986.2m | US$1.01b | US$1.04b | US$1.06b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 2.30% | Est @ 2.39% | Est @ 2.46% | Est @ 2.51% | Est @ 2.54% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% | US$446 | US$728 | US$800 | US$658 | US$663 | US$632 | US$603 | US$576 | US$551 | US$527 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$6.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.1b× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (7.3%– 2.6%) = US$23b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$23b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$12b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$18b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$225, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DICK'S Sporting Goods as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.128. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for DICK'S Sporting Goods
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For DICK'S Sporting Goods, there are three further aspects you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does DKS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for DKS's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:DKS
DICK'S Sporting Goods
Operates as an omni-channel sporting goods retailer primarily in the United States.