A Fresh Look at Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Valuation After 2025 Holiday Program Announcement

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) just kicked off its 2025 holiday gift program, rolling out Black Friday and Cyber Week deals, along with new shopping conveniences. Investors are paying close attention as the holiday season ramps up.

See our latest analysis for Academy Sports and Outdoors.

While Academy Sports and Outdoors is ramping up for a busy holiday push, its momentum on the market has cooled. Year-to-date, the share price is down 19.1% and the total return over the past year stands at -10%, despite strong gains for longer-term holders. The past five years have still delivered a total shareholder return of nearly 183%, underscoring the retailer’s impressive long-run growth story.

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With the share price trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and solid recent growth in both revenue and net income, is Academy Sports and Outdoors an undervalued pick for investors? Or is the market rightly pricing in its future prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.4% Undervalued

Academy Sports and Outdoors closed at $45.77, while the most followed narrative sets fair value much higher. This difference highlights a bold market opportunity shaped by specific growth drivers and operational shifts.

Strong acceleration in e-commerce (18% growth in Q2 and expanding digital assortment/omnichannel capabilities) positions Academy to capture greater share as consumer spending shifts online. This is likely to support outperformance in future revenues and market share. An ongoing store expansion strategy focused on secondary and tertiary markets with growing populations and suburban migration (20-25 new stores in 2025, robust early comps in new stores) sets up above-peer top-line growth and improved operating leverage as these locations mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling that big valuation gap? The secret is aggressive online growth, new stores and margin moves that could change the game. Curious how these levers add up to a higher price target? Unlock the full story behind these sharply optimistic numbers to see what projections are being made.

Result: Fair Value of $57.5 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cost pressures and an overreliance on higher-income shoppers could quickly challenge the optimistic growth narrative if economic conditions change.

Find out about the key risks to this Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative.

Build Your Own Academy Sports and Outdoors Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper before drawing conclusions, you can easily craft your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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