Earnings Beat: Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts

Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$30m exceeding analyst forecasts by 211%, and statutory losses of US$0.18 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Voyager Therapeutics

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Voyager Therapeutics is for revenues of US$67.9m in 2024. This implies a disturbing 53% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$1.49 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$48.5m and US$1.51 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.

The consensus price target held steady at US$17.44despite the upgrade to revenue forecasts and ongoing losses. The analysts seems to think the business is otherwise performing roughly in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Voyager Therapeutics at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 78% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Voyager Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Voyager Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.