Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (NASDAQ:VBLT) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

It's been a good week for Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (NASDAQ:VBLT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.0% to US$1.21. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 3.5% short of analyst estimates at US$193k, although at least statutory losses were marginally smaller than expected, at US$0.12 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vascular Biogenics

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Vascular Biogenics is for revenues of US$712.5k in 2021, implying an uncomfortable 15% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$850.7k and losses of US$0.57 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.

There was no real change to the average price target of US$3.88, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Vascular Biogenics' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vascular Biogenics analyst has a price target of US$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 15% revenue decline is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 116% annually over the past three years

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vascular Biogenics going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 5 warning signs for Vascular Biogenics (2 are a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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