Results: TG Therapeutics, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for TG Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TGTX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.9% to US$20.04. In addition to beating expectations by 11% with revenues of US$73m, TG Therapeutics delivered a surprise (statutory) profit of US$0.04 per share, a sweet improvement compared to the losses that the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TG Therapeutics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for TG Therapeutics

After the latest results, the consensus from TG Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$331.1m in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 4.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 81% to US$0.13 in the same period. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$310.5m and losses of US$0.019 per share in 2024. So we can see there's been a pretty clear upgrade to expectations following the latest results, with a slight bump in revenues expected to lead to profitability earlier than previously forecast.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.5% to US$33.38per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TG Therapeutics at US$49.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 92% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - TG Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been a clear step-change in belief around the business' prospects, with the analysts now expecting TG Therapeutics to become profitable next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple TG Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for TG Therapeutics that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.