Are Investors Undervaluing MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ:MLTX) By 39%?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics fair value estimate is US$72.37
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics' US$43.81 share price signals that it might be 39% undervalued
• The US$78.00 analyst price target for MLTX is 7.8% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ:MLTX) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	-US$163.6m	-US$242.5m	-US$237.3m	-US$126.2m	US$90.7m	US$131.8m	US$174.8m	US$216.0m	US$253.4m	US$286.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 45.40%	Est @ 32.57%	Est @ 23.58%	Est @ 17.29%	Est @ 12.89%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2%	-US$154	-US$215	-US$198	-US$99.3	US$67.2	US$92.0	US$115	US$134	US$148	US$157

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$46m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$286m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.2%– 2.6%) = US$8.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$8.2b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)¹⁰= US$4.5b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$4.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$43.8, the company appears quite good value at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MoonLake Immunotherapeutics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.865. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, we've compiled three additional factors you should look at:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (1 is a bit concerning!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does MLTX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.